Today's Edition
A. SREENIVASA REDDY (ABU DHABI)
The UAE economy is expected to maintain stable medium-term growth, with real GDP projected to average 4% in 2030 and 2031, according to the latest World Economic Outlook projections. This follows a strong rebound to 5.3% growth in 2027, after overcoming the impact of regional developments.
The IMF has revised up its outlook for the UAE beyond 2026, with 2027 growth upgraded by 0.6 percentage points compared to the October 2025 forecast, indicating a recovery from lost output.
The 2030 projection has also been raised by 0.1 percentage point.
Despite the challenging regional environment, the UAE remains relatively resilient compared to its Gulf peers. The economy is all set expand in the current year even as several GCC economies face contractions.
According to IMF projections, Qatar’s economy is expected to contract sharply by 8.6% in 2026, while Kuwait and Bahrain are projected to shrink by 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively. In contrast, Oman is expected to grow by 3.5% and Saudi Arabia by 3.1%.
An IMF official told Aletihad that stronger-than-expected performance in the non-oil sector could support an improvement in UAE growth this year, although hydrocarbon output remains largely fixed.
The broader GCC economy is projected to grow by 2% in 2026 before accelerating to 4.8% in 2027. Across the wider region, growth in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAP) region is projected to slow to 1.4% in 2026, marking a 2.3 percentage point downgrade from October 2025 projections amid disruptions to trade, energy production and transport routes.
The IMF expects a recovery from 2027 as disruptions ease and production normalises.
