Today's Edition
MAYS IBRAHIM (ABU DHABI)
Capital spending by GCC national oil companies (NOCs) is set to reach between $115 billion and $125 billion annually through 2027, backed by production capacity expansion plans in the UAE, according to a new outlook from S&P Global Ratings.
In its GCC 2026 Energy Outlook report, S&P said spending growth will moderate compared with previous years but remain elevated as mega projects move into execution and commissioning phases.
The agency expects most new investment to be directed toward upstream production capacity, alongside a growing, though still secondary, focus on gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and lower-carbon energy sources.
“Even with a more moderate pace of capex growth, GCC NOCs’ spending will remain sizable,” the report said, adding that this level of investment is unlikely to materially strain cash flows, even under lower oil price scenarios.
The main drivers of the spending surge are capacity expansion plans in the UAE and Qatar, alongside capacity maintenance in Saudi Arabia.
In the UAE, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) is targeting an increase in production capacity to five million barrels per day by 2027, while QatarEnergy is expanding LNG output through its multi-phase North Field development.
S&P expects capex to begin tapering toward the second half of the decade as these large-scale projects approach completion.
Across the region, NOCs are also increasingly prioritising gas and LNG as part of long-term energy transition strategies.
In March ADNOC subsidiary XRG acquired an 10% stake in Mozambique’s Area 4 gas project and Qatar Energy is actively seeking and securing interests in Africa and South America.
However, oil remains the core revenue driver. According to the report, more than half of the total capex is expected to remain focused on upstream exploration and production.
Despite Brent prices hovering in the $60–65 per barrel range, S&P said GCC NOCs are well-positioned to absorb higher investment levels due to strong cash generation and relatively low leverage.
Ratings across most national oil companies are expected to remain resilient, even if lower oil prices weigh on cash flows.
The report contrasts this with international oil companies, which have broadly cut or flattened capex guidance over the past 12–18 months to protect shareholder returns and balance sheets.
