Today's Edition
ABU DHABI (ALETIHAD)
Experts and specialists in strategic affairs and international relations emphasised that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East between the US and Israel on one side and Iran on the other represents a highly dangerous shift in regional and global security dynamics.
They warned that continued escalation could lead to wide-ranging consequences extending beyond the region and affecting the global economy, energy markets and international trade.
These sentiments were shared during an international strategic dialogue organised by TRENDS Research & Advisory at its headquarters in Abu Dhabi, titled "The War in the Middle East: Regional and International Repercussions and Future Prospects".
The event brought together a distinguished group of experts and researchers from research centres, universities and international institutions.
Participants agreed that the coming period may witness significant changes in the regional order and its balance of power. They also praised the Gulf states' ability to manage crises, protect vital infrastructure, and maintain their status as stable regional actors capable of safeguarding their interests through integrated defence systems and effective diplomacy.
Speakers stressed that preventing the conflict from expanding into a broader regional war remains a top priority for countries in the region, given the potential political, economic and security repercussions.
They also noted that the future stability in the Middle East will depend largely on regional actors' ability to manage differences through diplomacy and sustainable political solutions.
Rapid Developments
The dialogue was opened by Dr Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS Research & Advisory, who noted that the event comes at a particularly sensitive moment as the Middle East is experiencing rapid geopolitical developments.
These developments raise strategic questions about the future of security and stability in the region and heighten concerns that the conflict could expand into a wider confrontation.
Dr Al-Ali emphasised that dialogues such as these provide an important platform for experts and opinion leaders to analyse developments through a rigorous academic approach, away from media noise and political rhetoric.
He added that the dialogue aimed to better understand the strategic calculations shaping the behaviour of the parties involved in the conflict, assess the global repercussions of the crisis - particularly regarding energy markets and international trade - and explore regional perspectives on the future of stability in the Middle East.
Dr Al-Ali also stressed the critical role of think tanks in interpreting global events, anticipating future developments, and providing insights that support policymakers in managing complex crises.
Strategic Relations Under Test
In a keynote address, French Senator Nathalie Goulet highlighted the importance of the dialogue, noting that the military escalation has placed the region in a highly dangerous situation marked by uncertainty about future developments.
She described the ongoing conflict as an important test for regional strategic relations. She highlighted the depth of defence cooperation between France and Gulf countries, particularly the UAE. She also warned that the crisis carries significant military, economic and humanitarian risks, emphasising the need to work towards restoring stability and peace.
Session One: Strategic Calculations
The first session focused on the strategic calculations of the United States and regional actors, including deterrence, alliance management, and the objectives of the main parties involved in the conflict.
Bilal Saab, Director of the TRENDS office in the United States, noted that some statements from the US administration suggested that weakening the Iranian regime may be among the objectives of the military campaign. However, he pointed towards the differences between the United States and Israel regarding the scope of military operations.
He explained that both sides aim to significantly weaken Iran's military capabilities, particularly its missile and naval capacities, and limit Tehran's ability to support allied groups in the region.
Allison Minor emphasised that US policymakers are closely monitoring the war's impact on global oil markets, as energy price stability remains a key economic and political concern in Washington.
She explained that the US strategy includes targeting Iran's naval and missile capabilities, reducing its ability to support regional proxies, and preventing it from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, she noted that achieving some of these objectives may require broader political and security strategies beyond air operations.
Michael Hanna pointed to what he described as the absence of clearly defined strategic objectives for the war. He argued that the ambiguity surrounding the campaign reflects broader challenges in strategic planning.
He also warned that developments such as Iranian retaliation or threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could further complicate the conflict.
According to Hanna, historical experience shows that regime change cannot be achieved through air strikes alone and would require extensive ground operations.
Session Two: Global Repercussions
The second session examined the global economic implications of the crisis, focusing on how geopolitical shocks affect international markets and the broader global economy.
Participants noted that geopolitical crises often lead to capital outflows from emerging markets, currency pressures, and volatility in financial markets. Such developments can weaken economic integration and negatively affect global living standards.
Kristin Diwan highlighted the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, noting that any disruption to navigation in the strait could have direct consequences for global oil supplies, maritime trade, and petrochemical industries.
She also observed that while financial markets have responded cautiously to the crisis, commodity markets remain more sensitive to potential supply disruptions.
Despite these risks, she noted that Gulf economies have shown resilience, with countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE using alternative oil export routes, including the Red Sea and the Port of Fujairah.
Li Chen Sim addressed the relationship between geopolitical crises and global energy transitions. She argued that disruptions in fossil fuel markets do not necessarily accelerate the shift toward renewable energy. Instead, the current crisis underscores the importance of national energy security and the need for diversified, resilient energy systems.
Benjamin Defynes discussed the potential effects of the crisis on global supply chains and developing economies, many of which are not well prepared to deal with prolonged energy shocks. He also noted that the global economy has already faced pressure due to trade disputes and tariffs, which have weakened international trade networks. Nevertheless, he suggested that global economic growth may continue, albeit at a slower pace.
Participants also discussed possible scenarios for the conflict in the coming months, including a negotiated de-escalation, a prolonged war of attrition, or a broader regional escalation that could severely disrupt global energy supplies and drive oil prices sharply higher.
Session Three: Middle Eastern Perspectives
The third session focused on regional perspectives and the strategic calculations of Middle Eastern states in response to the crisis. Speakers discussed how governments are balancing domestic priorities with regional security challenges while seeking to prevent further escalation.
Dr Fahad Al-Shalimi assessed Iran's military capabilities, noting that the country has suffered significant military strikes since the beginning of the conflict. He indicated that attacks on military facilities have significantly reduced Iran's missile launch capabilities.
He explained that Iran's strategy relied heavily on missiles and drones, but the neutralisation of many of these systems has reduced their operational effectiveness.
Dr Al-Shalimi emphasised that Gulf countries do not seek military confrontation with Iran but prefer stability and cooperation. However, security threats have required them to strengthen their defensive capabilities and adopt broader security strategies that include economic, food, and energy security.
Abduljalil Al-Saeed discussed the future of Gulf-Iran relations, arguing that the core challenge lies in the Iranian political system, which is often structured around confrontation and the identification of external adversaries.
He emphasised the importance of regional and international alliances in maintaining stability, citing cooperation between Gulf states and European partners as an example.
Imam Mohammad Tawhidi addressed the ideological dimension of the Iranian political system, highlighting the doctrine of Wilayat al-Faqih, which grants both religious and political authority to the Supreme Leader. He noted that this system has politicised religious institutions and integrated them into Iran's governance structure.
Fatima Al-Remeithi concluded that the region is undergoing a broader strategic transformation rather than merely a period of military escalation. She noted that major crises often reshape alliances and patterns of cooperation among states.
She also emphasised the importance of strengthening regional cooperation in areas such as security coordination, intelligence sharing, and early warning mechanisms.
Future Trajectories
The dialogue concluded with a discussion on the possible future trajectories of the crisis. Some participants suggested that diplomatic mediation efforts may intensify in the coming months, while others noted that continued political and military pressure could shape Iran's internal dynamics.
Participants agreed that the coming period may witness significant shifts in regional power balances. They stressed the importance of strengthening regional cooperation, building a more integrated security framework, and enhancing strategic awareness to address emerging challenges in the Middle East.
