Today's Edition
NEW YORK/ SINGAPORE (REUTERS)
Equities rose modestly while oil prices edged lower in a choppy session on Monday as investors awaited signs of a possible resolution to the Middle East War, as the US and Iran weighed the framework of a plan to end their conflict.
Markets were closed in many countries for the Easter Monday and Tomb Sweeping Day holidays. But earlier in the day, investors had perked up after reports of a potential ceasefire.
US President Donald Trump had earlier set a Tuesday ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global energy passes traffic.
“The market is on edge over this ultimatum and waiting for what comes next. Until we have some kind of concrete agreement it's hard to be fully committed to investing,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.
On Wall Street, at 10:52 am ET (1452 GMT) the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 73.57 points, or 0.13%, to 46,564.03, the S&P 500 rose 11.72 points, or 0.18%, to 6,594.44 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 57.35 points, or 0.24%, to 21,932.08. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose 1.94 points, or 0.20%, to 996.14.
In energy markets, US crude fell 0.56% to $110.92 a barrel and Brent fell to $108.74 per barrel, down 0.27% on the day.
US stocks briefly pared some gains on Monday after Institute for Supply Management data showed that the US services sector growth slowed in March, while prices paid by businesses for inputs climbed to near a 3-1/2-year high, an early sign that the prolonged war with Iran was boosting inflation pressures.
In currencies, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.37% to 99.89, with the euro up 0.33% at $1.1553.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.09% to 159.7. The yen had flirted with the crucial 160 per dollar level after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Friday put currency traders on notice, saying the government stands ready to act against speculative moves in foreign exchange markets as volatility has risen “significantly.”
US Treasures were little changed on Monday, with investors caught between optimism over reports of a ceasefire plan and unease over Trump's threat to escalate strikes on Iran.
The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes fell 1.3 basis points to 4.333%, from 4.346% late on Friday while the 30-year bond yield fell 1.6 basis points to 4.8897%. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, was flat at 3.852%, from 3.852% late on Friday.
On Friday, while Wall Street markets were closed for the Good Friday holiday, the US jobs report showed that employment growth rebounded more than expected in March, with a 178,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls representing the biggest increase in more than a year.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%, as people dropped out of the workforce. The data complicates the picture for the Federal Reserve, which will next decide on monetary policy at a two-day meeting ending on April 29. However, traders are not pricing in any rate cuts from the US central bank until October 2027, according to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool.
Citing uncertainty around inflation and rising geopolitical risks tied to the Middle East war, Wells Fargo Investment Institute said on Monday that it no longer expects a Fed rate cut in 2026 compared with its previous forecast for two cuts this year.
In precious metals, gold was little changed while silver dipped as market participants cautiously awaited further signals on the evolving US-Iran situation and its impact on global interest rates.
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,680.29 an ounce and spot silver fell 0.37% to $72.71 an ounce.
