Today's Edition
A.SREENIVASA REDDY (ABU DHABI)
S&P Global Mobility forecasts global battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales to reach 15.1 million units in 2025, reflecting a robust 30% growth from 2024. BEVs are projected to account for 16.7% of global light vehicle sales, up from 13.2% in 2024.
While BEV adoption accelerates globally, several challenges remain, especially in terms of affordability, infrastructure, and policy support. Notably, regional adoption rates vary widely, with markets such as China leading the charge and others, including parts of the Middle East, in the early stages of transition.
Key projections by S&P Global Mobility for BEV sales in 2025 by region include:
China: BEV penetration is expected to increase to 58% of passenger vehicle sales, up from 49% in 2024, driven by generous national and regional subsidies, full NEV tax exemptions, and declining battery costs.
Europe: BEV adoption is projected to face headwinds due to tapering subsidies, tariffs on Chinese imports, and political uncertainty, with growth tied to the EU's stricter emissions regulations.
United States: The EV landscape is anticipated to face challenges under the new US administration, with uncertainties around BEV support, tariffs, and shifting affordability.
When it comes to overall vehicle sales in 2025, S&P Global Mobility predicts a rise of 1.7% year-on-year, to 89.6 million units.
Global vehicle sales in 2024 are expected to reach 88.2 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility. This reflects a 1.7% increase from 2023, supported by ongoing inventory restocking throughout the year as supply chains stabilise.
The global auto sector remains focused on managing production and inventory levels in response to varied demand patterns, including slower growth in key markets.
“2025 is shaping up to be particularly challenging for the auto industry, as key regional demand factors limit demand potential and the new US administration adds fresh uncertainty from day one," said Colin Couchman, executive director of global light vehicle forecasting for S&P Global Mobility. "A key concern is how 'natural' EV demand fares as governments rethink policy support, especially incentives and subsidies, industrial policy, tariffs, and fast-evolving OEM target setting."
