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Gaza’s countdown to famine: Two months until catastrophe

Gaza’s countdown to famine: Two months until catastrophe
19 Mar 2024 10:47

ISIDORA CIRIC (ABU DHABI)

Northern Gaza will enter a state of famine any moment between now and May, as over half of its residents, 1.1 million, are currently facing a “catastrophic level of food insecurity”, a UN-backed report said on Monday.

The analysis, covering the period from February 15 through March 15, 2024, painted a worrisome picture of the food security situation in the Gaza Strip, especially in the North Gaza and Gaza Governorates.

“The findings of our current review confirm that famine is now projected and imminent in the North Gaza and Gaza Governorates and is expected to become manifest during the projection period from mid-March 2024 to May 2024,” the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report said. 
The IPC committee’s review revealed that the thresholds for acute food insecurity and acute malnutrition have been far exceeded, with a steeply increasing trend in malnutrition data indicating a high likelihood that the famine threshold for acute malnutrition has also been surpassed. 

The IPC’s findings showed that the entire population of the Gaza Strip is facing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phases 3 (Crisis), 4 (Emergency), and 5 (Catastrophe). 

Devastatingly, 55% of the population, or approximately 1.11 million people, are experiencing catastrophic levels of food insecurity. This represents a significant increase compared to the IPC’s previous analysis issued in December 2023, with acute food insecurity in the Gaza Strip deepening and widening considerably.

“Acute food insecurity in the Gaza Strip has deepened and widened with 79% and 92% more people sliding into catastrophic levels of hunger in the current [mid-February – mid-March] and the projected period [mid-March – July], respectively,” the report added.

In Northern Gaza, the situation is particularly severe, with 55% of households currently experiencing catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity and 45% facing emergency levels. The projections are even more grim, expecting 70% of households to face catastrophic levels and 30% to face emergency levels of acute food insecurity within the next two months.

In Khan Younis and Deir Al Balah, 45% of households are experiencing emergency levels of food insecurity, while 30% have reached catastrophic levels. Projections estimate that soon, 50% of households will likely experience catastrophe levels, while the other 50% will experience emergency levels of acute food insecurity.

The escalation of hostilities has halted supplies of water, food and fuel, causing the collapse of all food-related sectors, including vegetable production, livestock production, and fisheries and aquaculture, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) reported on Monday in response to the report. Moreover, aid convoys have been subject to strenuous inspections, significantly delaying the delivery time.

Field reports have highlighted the extreme measures people are taking to find food, including scavenging in building rubble or consuming animal feed, though these resources are nearly exhausted, the report said.

It is estimated that only 10-15% of the food needs in terms of kilocalories entered the northern governorates in the period from January to February 2024.

The report also shed light on the desperate coping mechanisms employed by more than 95% of respondents, such as reducing meals and restricting adult consumption so that children can eat. 
A key driver of acute malnutrition in Northern Gaza is the highly inadequate dietary diversity, especially among children aged 6–23 months, with 79% consuming two or fewer food groups, and among pregnant and breastfeeding women, with 95% consuming two or fewer food groups, most common of which are flour and oil.

“This updated IPC analysis validates what we all feared – a deepening and rapid deterioration of the food security situation in Gaza. Half of the population are facing catastrophic levels of food insecurity,” said FAO Deputy Director-General Beth Bechdol.

The IPC called for an “extremely urgent political response” alongside a full multisectoral and strategically balanced humanitarian response, emphasising the need for full commercial access to prevent the impending famine and mitigate the suffering of millions of people facing acute food insecurity.

 

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