Today's Edition
A. SREENIVASA REDDY (ABU DHABI)
Accelerated efforts to control obesity could contribute $51 billion to the UAE’s GDP by 2031 and save $1.5 billion in healthcare costs, a study has found.
The study undertaken by Whiteshield, an AI economics policy advisory, was commissioned by leading medicine company Lilly in collaboration with the Ministry of Economy and Tourism.
The findings highlight a significant opportunity for the UAE to unlock health and economic benefits through more proactive obesity intervention.
According to the report titled Beneath the Surface: The Hidden Socioeconomic Impacts of Weight Loss, accelerated intervention could help more than 1.2 million adults in the UAE transition out of obesity by 2031. Obesity prevalence could fall by 15 percentage points, from around 33% to 18%, under an aggressive intervention scenario.
The report projected that GDP growth could rise by an additional 1.5 percentage points above baseline projections, bringing the UAE’s GDP to an estimated $790 billion by 2031.
Worker productivity could increase by the equivalent of up to five additional working days per year for individuals previously living with obesity, while annual individual income could rise by up to $772.
The study said obesity intervention could have wide-ranging effects beyond healthcare, influencing economic productivity, workforce participation, education outcomes, demographic trends and even the country’s security talent pool.
Speaking at the launch of the report, Dr Maria Hanif Al Qassim, Assistant Undersecretary for Policies and Economic Studies at the Ministry of Economy and Tourism, said the report comes at an important time as it highlights the hidden effects of obesity on the economy, society and human development, and not only on health.
She said the importance of the report lies in its reliance on evidence and data to measure the real impact of weight loss, which contributes to supporting data-based policymaking and enhancing cooperation between government agencies, the health sector, insurance companies and employers.
The report noted that adults living with obesity can lose up to eight years of life expectancy because of obesity-related conditions such as Type 2 diabetes, while quality of life also diminishes significantly.
It said obesity-related illnesses, including diabetes and 13 types of cancer, are expected to decline under the accelerated intervention scenario, reducing the need for medical treatment, hospitalisations and long-term care.
This could reduce pressure on healthcare systems while promoting longer and healthier lives.
The study estimated that up to $1.5 billion in healthcare costs to the government and individuals could be averted by 2031, equivalent to nearly one full year of public healthcare expenditure in the UAE.
It further projected that life expectancy could increase by 2.4 years for nearly 1.2 million people previously living with obesity, while healthy life years could improve by as much as 6.8 years.
Affirming the findings of the report, Dr Faisal Dalvi, Specialist Endocrinologist and Diabetologist at Burjeel Day Surgery Center, Al Reem Island, Abu Dhabi, said reducing obesity could significantly improve population health, enhance economic productivity and help avoid long-term healthcare costs associated with obesity-related complications.
He said obesity remains one of the biggest risk factors for Type 2 diabetes, adding that the Middle East is witnessing one of the fastest-growing diabetes rates globally due to sedentary lifestyles, low physical activity and high consumption of processed foods and sugary drinks.
Dr Raghunath Raja Marimuthu, Specialist Gastrointestinal Surgery at Aster Hospital Mankhool, Dubai, said obesity should be viewed as a chronic disease requiring structured medical intervention.
“Obesity is not a lifestyle choice but a chronic, progressive disease demanding the same structured, multidisciplinary intervention we apply to any other major non-communicable disease,” he said.
Marimuthu said the findings of the report should lead to concrete policy measures across the healthcare system.
“Standardised referral pathways, equitable insurance coverage for both medical and surgical obesity treatments, and investment in dedicated metabolic surgery programmes across healthcare systems are some of the key action points,” he added.
The study projected that accelerated obesity intervention could result in nearly 17,000 additional people joining the UAE workforce by 2031. The gains are expected to be particularly significant among Emiratis, with more than 10,000 additional Emiratis entering the workforce, including about 9,000 Emirati women, under the accelerated intervention scenario.
The report also estimated that obesity intervention could lead to 75,000 additional births by 2031, including around 24,000 Emirati births.
In education, the study projected more than 2,000 additional bachelor’s degree enrolments and a reduction in university dropout rates under the accelerated intervention scenario.
The report also highlighted a potential increase of more than 5,700 service-ready young Emiratis eligible for military and police service by 2031 due to improved physical fitness.
According to the report, the UAE ranks 25th globally in obesity prevalence, with around 33% of adults living with obesity.
Obesity rates among UAE nationals stand at 47% compared to 31% among expatriates, while obesity prevalence among women is 39% compared to 30% among men.
The report added that obesity prevalence differs across emirates, ranging from 22% in Dubai to 39% in Ajman and Fujairah.
Lifestyle factors, including low physical activity and high caloric intake, continue to contribute to the issue.
Fadi Fara, CEO of Whiteshield, said the report reveals for the first time the true scale of the benefits generated by weight loss and obesity treatment in the UAE, not only in terms of improving individual health but also through economic and social benefits and positive impacts on the future workforce.
“The effective obesity treatment policies are not only good health policies, but they are also sound economic policies,” he said.
Leena Aziz, Senior Director, Corporate and Government Affairs, Gulf, Lilly, said obesity is a complex chronic disease that affects not only individual health, but also workforce productivity, economic resilience and long-term national development.
She said the UAE has made important progress in prioritising health as part of its national agenda and there is an opportunity to further integrate prevention, early intervention and access to care.
