Today's Edition
Reem Al Kindi*
The Strait of Hormuz has become a focal point of competing pressures. On one side is Iran’s influence, marked by ship seizures and a disregard for the risks that closing the Strait poses to the global economy and regional security.
On the other is a US-led blockade, maintained until an agreement is reached, under which no vessel can enter or leave without approval from the US Navy. This unfolds amid an ongoing conflict and uncertain negotiations, with no clear assurance that future outcomes will secure stability in the region.
For years, Tehran has viewed the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic card that gives it leverage over global energy supplies. While geography has long worked in Iran’s favour, US naval power has effectively turned that Iranian advantage into a constraint. The blockade imposes control over waters and coastlines, restricting the flow of resources.
As the United States and Iran compete for dominance over the Strait, maritime traffic has slowed dramatically. Many vessels have halted operations due to fears of naval mines or attacks, leaving hundreds stranded in the Gulf.
No side has achieved full control, and uncertainty defines the situation.
Concerns about the future continue to grow. The presence of naval mines in the Strait, reportedly laid by Iran in large numbers, poses a serious threat to ships and their crews. Even if a final agreement is reached, clearing the waterway and restoring full operations could take considerable time, extending the economic impact beyond the conflict itself.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to exert influence, targeting some vessels and attempting to impose fees outside international legal frameworks, reinforcing its leverage and applying pressure on the global economy.
Before the conflict, under normal conditions, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply and a significant share of natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz. That volume has declined due to the war. The International Energy Agency has reported about a 10% drop in global oil supplies.
Despite an extended but indefinite truce, negotiations remain fragile. Global markets are bearing the cost, as disruptions affect not only energy flows but also food supplies and raw materials essential to various industries, all amid a broader diplomatic stalemate.
International efforts to form a force to secure the Strait of Hormuz, including European initiatives led by France and the United Kingdom alongside partners beyond Europe, remain in the making, pending the outcome of a potential agreement to end the war. Deploying naval forces alone is not enough to secure the Strait. What is required is a diplomatic settlement.
Iran, for its part, still believes it holds leverage. Having lived under sanctions since the 1979 revolution, it is betting on the implications of the war for the United States and the global economy. It frames this as resilience, coupled with the ability of the Strait of Hormuz to inflict harm on others.
It also signals the potential use of additional pressure cards, including Yemen and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, if necessary. At the same time, it appears largely indifferent to the hardship this creates for ordinary people, whether in Europe, the United States, Africa, Asia, Latin America or even within Iran itself.
Ultimately, instability in the Strait is escalating. Military pressure is increasingly intertwined with maritime trade, and passage through one of the world’s most critical energy corridors is now governed by both military calculations and ongoing negotiations. Leaving the situation as it is poses a clear threat to international peace and security.
The time has come for a coordinated international position to resolve the crisis in a way that ensures the smooth flow of trade and shields navigation from geopolitical tensions, without resorting to threats or disrupting the global economy and people’s livelihoods.
Iran continues to threaten international trade, as its record during the Iran-Iraq War and its aftermath clearly shows, particularly in the targeting of oil tankers. If it were to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz following a 40-day war, the same pattern would likely repeat, re-establishing dominance over one of the world’s most critical corridors and turning it into both an economic and military lever, beyond accepted international norms.
If international organisations and alliances fail to ensure the smooth flow of transit without domination by Iran or any other actor, Tehran will shape the Strait to serve its own interests. Even if it reaches an agreement with the US, it may still be left with room to act as it sees fit.
The solution lies in addressing all concerns with urgency. The global economy cannot withstand further uncertainty. Countries in the region and beyond must reject coercion, including any attempt to impose fees for safe passage through the Strait, which must be kept out of conflict by establishing an international force that guarantees freedom of navigation at all times, in both peace and war.
The economies of the region and the wider world should not be left vulnerable to Iranian manipulation.
*The writer is Deputy Head of the TRENDS International Training Institute and Director of International Training Department
