Today's Edition
Najla Al Mutasim Al Midfa*
What happens when a single waterway can disrupt economies across three continents?
The Iran conflict is answering that question now. It is proving that in today’s interconnected world, no conflict is truly regional. What seems confined to the Gulf is already sending shockwaves through Asia and Africa, reshaping energy markets, driving up costs and revealing how fragile global systems really are.
Asia is at the forefront of this crisis, since a significant share of the world’s oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, most of it is bound for Asian economies. India, Japan and South Korea depend heavily on these supplies and even minor disruptions are enough to push prices up and strain supply chains.
This is not a distant geopolitical issue for them; it’s an urgent economic one. Energy prices feed directly into inflation, industrial output and overall stability. In that sense, Asia isn’t just affected by the war; it is structurally exposed to it.
The second layer of the shock is logistical and geographic. The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab are not isolated waterways but part of a connected system. When one is disrupted, pressure migrates to the other.
Across Africa, the impact is quieter but just as serious. Rising fuel import costs are driving up transport and food prices across the continent, especially affecting landlocked and import-dependent nations.
As shipping risks and prices rise, countries are already feeling the effects, including fuel shortages, rising living costs and an increasing demand on fundamental services. Africa is not involved in this conflict, yet it is among those paying the highest price for it.
At the core of all this is a deeper issue: the vulnerability of global systems to localised disruption. The Strait of Hormuz is not just a passage; it's a lifeline for the world economy. When it is under threat, the effects are immediate and significant. Energy markets become tighter, shipping prices rise and supply chains start to break down.
Some politicians have claimed that “Iran is holding the world economy hostage", which shows how much power one chokepoint can hold.
This is the reality of a multipolar world. Conflicts no longer stay within borders; they move through trade routes and energy networks, turning local crises into global shocks. But the real consequences of this war will come after it ends. Iran is likely to remain weakened but intact, with its strategic behaviour. That doesn’t resolve the issue; it reshapes it, keeping the region in a state of ongoing tension.
The global response will be structural. Asian nations will increase energy diversification and chokepoint reduction. The Gulf shows resilience in this moment. The UAE, in particular, continues to demonstrate stability and preparedness, even amid regional volatility.
The lesson is clear: In today’s world, no crisis is isolated. A disruption in one corridor can ripple across continents. The war may be unfolding in the Gulf, but its consequences are global — and they are just beginning.
*Researcher at TRENDS Research & Advisory
