Today's Edition
MAYS IBRAHIM (ABU DHABI)
Unusually warm waters in the Arabian Sea and nearby gulfs intensified the record rainfall that hit the UAE on April 16, 2024, a new study has found.
Higher sea surface temperatures increased the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, according to the research by NYU Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Arabian Centre for Climate and Environmental Sciences (Mubadala ACCESS).
As a weather system moved across the region, it drew on this extra moisture, triggering strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over parts of the UAE, including Dubai, Al Ain, and Abu Dhabi.
At the time, Al Ain saw 254 millimetres of rain – the highest since records began in 1949 – while Dubai received 142 millimetres. The UAE averages only 140–200 millimetres of rainfall annually, with just 8 millimetres typically falling in April.
Although large-scale weather patterns played an important role in shaping the event, the study found that elevated sea surface temperatures supplied more moisture for the storm and strongly influenced where and how much rain fell.
“Our findings show how ocean conditions can influence regional weather systems and rainfall patterns,” said Basit Khan, lead author of the study.
The research - conducted by Khan, Subrota Halder, Zouhair Lachkar, Francesco Paparella, and Olivier Pauluis from NYU Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala ACCESS - could help enhance forecasting accuracy, inform risk modelling, and guide long-term climate resilience strategies in the UAE and the wider region.
“By better understanding these interactions, we can support improved weather forecasting and preparedness across the region,” Khan said.
How Geography Shaped the Storm’s Impact
NYUAD researchers used satellite data and advanced weather models to investigate the event.
They found that warmer sea surface temperatures increased atmospheric moisture in the days leading up to April 16, resulting in more intense convective storms over the Arabian Gulf region.
Compared with scenarios using average sea temperatures, the study found rainfall over the UAE was up to 28% higher when waters were unusually warm.
The study also showed that local geography shaped the storm’s impact.
Dry conditions over East Africa limited how much moisture can come from that direction, making the Arabian sea the primary source for the storm. Meanwhile, mountain ranges in Iran acted as a barrier, concentrating the rainfall in the UAE instead of allowing it to fall further north.
As global sea temperatures continue to rise, the study suggests that similar intense storms could become more frequent in the Middle East.
