Today's Edition
By Abdullah Aqeel Al Kindi*
International power balances emerge and shift in response to interest-driven dynamics within an environment that both sustains and constrains them. Relations between states may evolve into strong alliances or remain limited to temporary, transactional cooperation. Yet, when crises arise and circumstances fluctuate, each side seeks a friend capable of easing pressures or helping navigate turbulent periods. In times of global instability and geopolitical tension, nations look for partners able to stand with them on a few issues or many. This logic can be clearly applied to relations between Russia and India.
Moscow and New Delhi have been moving from cooperation toward a deeper partnership built on expanding commercial and military ties. This shift was evident during President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India, aimed at advancing the strategic partnership and outlining a renewed vision for its foundations, especially amid an international trade war and a series of cross-border crises, most notably the Russia–Ukraine war and its impact on global energy markets. Paradoxically, the war in Ukraine, US tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, and the American and international sanctions imposed on Russia have all acted as catalysts, strengthening bilateral relations instead of constraining them.
India relies heavily on Russian energy imports, and the scope of dialogue between the two sides appears to be widening to include potential procurement of the fifth-generation Su-57 fighter jet and advanced S-400 air defence systems. India already operates three S-400 units, and the pattern of reciprocal high-level visits conveys a message: Russia and India consider themselves strong partners beyond the Western sphere. Western pressure on India to reduce its ties with Moscow and to scale back purchases of Russian crude seems, so far, to have had limited effect.
India’s imports of Russian crude oil rose dramatically, from less than 1% of its total oil imports before the Ukraine war to around 40% today, making it the world’s largest buyer of seaborne Russian crude and the second-largest overall after China since sanctions were imposed on Moscow. India has effectively provided Russia with a major outlet for its energy exports after Europe phased them out. Meanwhile, Moscow and New Delhi aim to expand their bilateral trade volume to $100 billion by 2030, alongside increased Russian imports of Indian goods.
The growing Russian–Indian rapprochement — clearly visible at the New Delhi summit between President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and earlier during Modi’s first visit to Moscow in his third term — signals that Asian markets are fully capable of creating large alternative outlets for global oil flows. For India, abandoning discounted Russian crude is far from easy, regardless of external pressure. Reintegrating Russian oil into global markets is reshaping the map of global energy supply chains, especially if the proposed ruble–rupee settlement mechanism is completed.
The relationship between Moscow and New Delhi extends well beyond energy. The two countries have the potential to anchor an additional pillar in a more multipolar world order. Both support the transition toward a more balanced and equitable global system through their cooperation in institutions such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Their partnership also creates space to pursue shared objectives, balance China’s rise, and diversify trade relations. Bilateral trade reached $68.7 billion between 2024 and 2025, a sixfold increase compared to pre-pandemic levels, although the trade balance remains largely in Russia’s favour.
In the nuclear field, Russia is a key partner in India’s largest nuclear energy project, and discussions are underway to expand cooperation into areas such as small modular reactor development. Nuclear energy has long been a cornerstone of the bilateral relationship, exemplified by the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant in southern India. India aims to reach a nuclear generation capacity of 100 gigawatts by 2047, further extending opportunities for joint work.
Defence cooperation is equally longstanding. Russia accounted for 76% of India’s arms imports between 2009 and 2013, though this share fell to 36% between 2019 and 2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Despite disruptions to some contracts due to the Ukraine war, both sides appear committed to enhancing military collaboration. India has traditionally been a major buyer of Russian platforms, particularly Sukhoi fighter jets and T-90 tanks.
Putin’s visit to New Delhi can, thus, be seen as highly significant in timing and substance. It comes amid aspirations for peace in Ukraine, shifting power dynamics in Asia, complex relations with Western countries, and growing opportunities in trade and investment driven by the use of national currencies in bilateral exchanges. Despite Western pressure, Russia and India are forging a mutually beneficial alignment rooted in current geopolitical realities and reinforced by cooperation in energy, defence, trade, and technology, advancing their shared goal of contributing to a more balanced international order.
*The writer is a Researcher at TRENDS Research & Advisory
