Today's Edition
AWADH MOHAMED ALBREIKI*
In a landslide victory, former US president Donald Trump has won the presidential election, and the Republican Party made significant gains in Congress, both in terms of securing a Senate majority and nearly controlling the House of Representatives. Now, the 47th President of the United States, Trump, returns to the White House with his unconventional approach to American politics.
During his first term, Trump became known for his clear-cut, transactional, and unconstrained decision-making unrestricted by traditional Washington policymaking processes. However, his second term is expected to be different from the first, especially given the changing international context, Trump’s honed personal experience, and the current state of American interests in a complex global environment. The differences between Trump’s first and second terms may be in his methods of achieving the goals rather than the goals themselves. When he officially assumes office on January 20, 2025, urgent issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war, rivalry with China, Middle East conflicts, and relations with Iran will require immediate, powerful action.
Trump’s vision is based on the “America First” policy, which emphasises a nontraditional approach to preserving the US global dominance. This requires pushing partners and allies to increase their defence spending, balancing trade relationships in favour of the US, and maintaining a protectionist position on trade with China. In general, Trump will seek to minimise American spending that benefits other countries than the US.
In the complex scene of the Middle East, Trump is expected to pursue his pledge to end conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon by utilising his personal ties with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli leading figures. The newly elected president may accelerate a ceasefire deal in Gaza, negotiate the return of prisoners, and work towards an agreement to halt hostilities between Israel and Lebanon. This would be a notable difference between his and President Joe Biden’s administration, which faced criticism for its failure to stabilise the Middle East over the past year. If Trump manages to resolve these Middle East conflicts in the early months of his presidency, it would be a quick diplomatic victory that would gain him recognition as a peacemaker in the region.
Trump’s stringent “maximum pressure” policy towards Iran may likely continue, although the situation is not the same as when the US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal during his first term in 2018. However, escalation will possibly remain a key strategy in Trump’s new administration, given Iran’s support for armed groups in the region and its growing military relations with Russia. There may also be a diplomatic path after political, economic, and military pressure on Tehran. President Trump has repeatedly emphasised that he does not wish to harm or destroy Iran, but he continues to maintain his stance that he will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. In this case, his administration’s actions will largely depend on the progress Iran has made in uranium enrichment.
Donald Trump is known as a pragmatic politician who deals with international issues as a “win-or-lose” game. This reality may allow cooperation with several countries and leaders in the Arab region, as many of them have maintained strong relations with the returning White House resident. This situation presents an opportunity to strengthen cooperation with Washington, particularly since the Middle East now has multiple international options to consider. Both China and Russia have established strong relations with the countries of the region, with Beijing becoming the top trade partner of many of them. Therefore, the new US president will likely pursue a more calming phase in the region that enables reaching agreements and partnerships between the US and the region, especially in the field of economic cooperation.
The incoming Trump administration will focus on global peace, but it faces significant challenges concerning its strategy in addressing Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon. Another pressing issue is the integration of Israel into the Middle East and the Arab demand for an independent Palestinian state. However, the Trump administration has shown, even during its first term, an ability to broker “deals” and achieve breakthroughs and control the conflict in the Middle East.
*The author is a Senior Researcher specialising in American politics at TRENDS Research & Advisory, where he also heads the TRENDS Global Sector
