REEM MOHSIN ALKINDI
The writer is a researcher at TRENDS Research & Advisory
Russia and China’s relations have taken a new shape as a result of the conflict in Ukraine. Russian interests in avoiding the high costs of the war in Ukraine, particularly in the context of the economy and international trade, have met with China’s desire to free itself of the restrictions in the Indo-Pacific region, including the US and its allies’ moves in the region, which pose a shared risk to both Beijing and Moscow. The two countries also share their rejection of Western policies, both towards them and around the world.
Chinese-Russian relations are sometimes contradictory, especially in the rivalry in Central Asia and Africa. Yet, economic cooperation has often brought the two countries together. The war in Ukraine and the consequent international sanctions have paved the way for deepening cooperation on energy after Europe stopped importing Russian oil, gas and coal.
Projects in infrastructure, technology, space, and climate change have expanded. Considering that the economy is at the heart of the Russian-Chinese alliance, indicators show record levels for 2023. Bilateral trade exceeded $240 billion, an increase of nearly 26%, while trade between the US and China declined by 11.6% compared to 2022 to reach $664 billion.
At the military level, the picture is different. China adopts a pro-peace position. Here, Beijing’s support for Moscow may be limited to some technologies and materials associated with the military industry, such as electronic chips. No announcement was made regarding supplying Russia with weapons to support it in the Ukraine war, which reflects China’s anti-war position. At the same time, China refrains from condemning Russia, maintaining Chinese-Russian cooperation. This does not amount to supporting all Russian measures and policies, but instead puts Beijing in a position to contribute to a political settlement to achieve future peace in Ukraine.
It is no secret that both Beijing and Moscow look forward to a multi-pole global order where no single pole dominates the international scene. Both countries oppose being encircled by the West. They are against US hegemony over the world order, as well as the country’s moves in Hong Kong, Taiwan and elsewhere. They reject NATO’s expansions and adoption of Cold War ideology. That is why the Chinese-Russian strategic partnership has come as a clear expression of an ambitious vision to build a new world order that rejects the US and Western visions of the world.
Moscow wishes to continue the unprecedented historical levels of cooperation that it reached with Beijing. After winning a new term, Russian President Vladimir Putin can now carry on the alliance path with China.
Perhaps his first foreign visit during the new presidential term would be to Beijing, within a series of top-level mutual visits in the last few years to shift relations to advanced stages that would enhance political trust and draw shared visions on international issues. Perhaps the most important among these were the ones that preceded the war in February 2022, during which strategic partnership agreements were signed, and the ones that followed the war by President Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
China and Russia are both convinced that if one of them falls, the other would find itself in a difficult situation because it faces the same threat. That is why the expansion of the strategic alliance between them is inevitable.
However, the fact that at the military level, both sides are not bound by mutual defence obligations and there is no official military alliance between them indicates that the alliance between the two countries is a matter of necessity and a response to Western policies. Through its alliance with Russia, China consolidates its northern front.
Both countries share the same strategic goal of transforming the existing world order into a more just system through several policies, including BRICS. Accordingly, factors of rivalry in the relations between Moscow and Beijing are less relevant compared to their common interests and the need to join forces at several strategic levels. Before the West can place bets on how the two countries will differ at a given point, it must first alter its policies towards Beijing, Moscow, and the rest of the world.