Today's Edition
By Saqer Khaled Al Suwaidi
The author is a researcher and director of Training and Development Department at the Scientific Research Sector for TRENDS Research & Advisory
The pace of the war in Ukraine has accelerated and slowed with shifts in international politics since February 2022. Today, more than a thousand days later, the conflict appears to be entering a new phase, with intensified military operations and a growing risk of losing control. Pathways to a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine now seem increasingly distant. Nonetheless, the current escalation could be the storm before the calm, as dynamics change slightly with the return of President-elect Donald Trump and speculation about the possibility of ending the war and initiating negotiations over Ukraine’s post-war future.
Washington’s recent decision, in the final days of the Biden administration, to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles, such as ATACMS, which can reach up to 300 kilometres into Russian territory, will significantly impact the battlefield. Meanwhile, reports suggest that soldiers from North Korea have joined the fight alongside Russia. Additionally, emerging scenarios point to significant complications in both the Ukrainian and international arenas, as Moscow accuses the Biden administration of creating obstacles for Trump in Ukraine ahead of his inauguration in January 2025.
Following Ukraine’s deployment of US-supplied ATACMS and British Storm Shadow long-range missiles against Russian targets, Moscow has escalated its stance by revising its nuclear doctrine. The updated policy permits the use of nuclear weapons in response to aggression against Russia or its allies, even if the attack originates from a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear power. This change suggests that missile strikes into Russian territory could now be considered grounds for a nuclear response.
In a significant escalation, Russia has deployed its advanced Oreshnik hypersonic missile in a strike on Ukraine. This missile, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, underscores President Vladimir Putin’s warning against altering the war’s outcome.
Amid these developments, Europe remains divided over Ukraine’s military actions. France and Britain support Ukraine’s deep strikes into Russian territory, while other nations advocate for containing the conflict within Ukraine to prevent escalation that could involve NATO. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz exemplifies this cautious stance by refusing to supply Kyiv with German-made Taurus long-range missiles, despite approval from his coalition partner, the Green Party.
Various scenarios for the course of events in Ukraine have emerged. While Russia has not entirely ruled out ceasefire negotiations, it remains steadfast in refusing to make concessions to Ukraine and insists on Kyiv abandoning its aspirations for NATO membership. At the same time, Russia continues to escalate its military actions, expanding attacks on cities, energy infrastructure, and other strategic targets, while carefully avoiding the spread of the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders. This strategy appears to be designed to maintain conditions favourable for eventual negotiations.
On the other hand, the possibility of the war expanding beyond Russia and Ukraine cannot be dismissed, particularly through offensive operations targeting Western military installations and equipment outside the territories of the United States and Europe. However, attacks on targets in North America or NATO countries remain unlikely, as such actions would almost inevitably trigger a strong response from Western nations.
The scenario of nuclear escalation appears to be the least likely outcome, except in the case of a limited use of tactical nuclear weapons as a warning that Russia’s options are narrowing. President Putin has already laid the groundwork for this possibility by unveiling the new Russian nuclear doctrine. Western countries are acutely aware of Moscow’s warnings that the conflict could escalate into a global confrontation.
Increasing military pressure could push diplomatic solutions further out of reach. However, it might also serve as an attempt to secure negotiating leverage before the war subsides, enabling discussions on more balanced terms rather than allowing one side to dominate through sheer power. While Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons may slow Russia’s advances, achieving a significant breakthrough into Russian territory remains unlikely.
Whether President-elect Trump will actively pursue an end to the war will become clearer in the weeks following his inauguration and the initial actions of the new administration. Until then, international actors should exercise caution to avoid slipping into a direct confrontation.
