NEW YORK (WASHINGTON POST)
Most Democrats nationwide say that President Biden should end his reelection campaign based on his performance in the presidential debate two weeks ago, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.
The poll results contradict Biden’s claim that only party elites want him to step aside. He has said that positive interactions with supporters on the campaign trail have helped persuade him to stay in the race after a debate in which he trailed off and occasionally appeared confused. But the poll finds that 56% of Democrats say that he should end his candidacy, while 42% say he should continue to seek reelection. Overall, 2 in 3 adults say the president should step aside, including more than 7 in 10 independents.
The poll finds Biden and former president Donald Trump in a dead heat in the contest for the popular vote, with both candidates receiving 46% support among registered voters. Those numbers are nearly identical to the results of an ABC-Ipsos poll in April.
That finding is at odds with some other recent public polls. Across eight other post-debate national polls tracked by The Post, Trump leads by 3.5 percentage points on average, compared with a one-point Trump edge in those same polls before the debate. Biden led Trump by between nine and 11 points in averages of public polls at this point in the campaign four years ago. He ended up winning by 4.5 points.
The president and his campaign team have spent the week seeking to enlist support from important Democratic Party constituencies, including the Congressional Black Caucus, labor leaders and key progressive legislators, but with limited success. By early Wednesday evening, 13 Democrats in the House and Senate had called for Biden to drop out, though one, Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), has since softened his position.
Also on Wednesday, former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) urged Biden to make a decision about whether to drop out of the presidential race, a sign that she and other Democrats don’t believe that Biden’s statements insisting he will stay in have settled the issue.
The poll shows the degree to which Democrats across the country were alarmed by what they saw in the debate. Many Democrats fear that, if Biden continues his candidacy, Trump could have an easier path to victory and that Republicans could end up holding majorities in both the House and Senate, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) said during an interview on CNN.
The survey finds little change in Biden’s job approval, with 57%, identical to the percentage in an April ABC-Ipsos poll. Among Democrats, 75% approve of Biden’s performance while 22% disapprove, also little changed in the past few months. Americans’ views of Trump and his performance as president has also changed little since before the debate, with 43% approving and 52% disapproving.
Yet last month’s debate, which most Americans say they watched or followed news about, appears to have heightened concerns about Biden’s age and fitness for office. The share of Americans saying Biden is more mentally sharp than Trump dropped from 23% in April to 14% this month. The share saying Biden is in better physical health than Trump dropped from 20% to 13%.
Trump did not make large gains on these questions; instead, growing numbers say neither candidate has the sharpness or physical health needed for the presidency. Most Americans say both Biden and Trump are too old to serve another term as president, rising from 53% in April to 58% now. The share saying only Biden is too old is unchanged at 28%, along with the 2 % who say only Trump is too old.
In total, 85% say Biden is too old while 60% say Trump is too old. In April, 81% said Biden was too old and 55% said Trump was too old.
Still, the new poll does not show movement in the voters’ intentions since the debate. In April, registered voters split 46% for Biden and 45% for Trump, with both now at 46%. Each candidate’s strength is among his party, with 92% of Democratic voters saying they’d vote for Biden in a two-way race and 93% of Republicans saying they’d support Trump. Among self-identified independents, the two are virtually tied, with Trump at 42% and Biden at 40%.
When third-party candidates are included, the margin between Biden and Trump does not shift significantly, with 42% supporting Biden and 43% supporting Trump. Another 9% of registered voters support Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 2% for Cornel West and 2% for Jill Stein.
Democrats have not come to a consensus about who should replace Biden if he steps aside, though Vice President Harris has far more support than other potential candidates.
In response to an open-ended question, 29% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents volunteered Harris, while 7% mentioned California Gov. Gavin Newsom, 4% named Michelle Obama and 3% apiece named Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Half did not name a specific individual as an alternative to Biden.
In a separate question, 70% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they would be “satisfied” if Harris replaced Biden as the party’s presidential nominee. That rises to 85% among Black Democrats, but large majorities of Democrats across demographic groups also say they’d be satisfied with Harris.
Harris faces more headwinds from the broader electorate, with 53%t of Americans overall saying they’d be dissatisfied with Harris replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee, including 58% of political independents. Two-thirds of Black Americans (67%) would be satisfied with Harris replacing Biden, compared with 51% of Hispanic Americans and 38% of Whites.
But in a separate ballot test, the poll finds Harris receiving 49% to Trump’s 47%t among registered voters. But that two-point difference is not statistically significant. There are also not large differences between Harris’s coalition and Biden’s, with almost all demographic groups statistically even on both Biden and Harris. One exception are voters who “disapprove somewhat” of Biden’s performance: 60% support Harris against Trump, compared with 50% who support Biden.
The Post-ABC-Ipsos poll finds a sharp racial divide within Biden’s party over his candidacy, with 63% of Black Democrats saying Biden should continue while 59% of Hispanic Democrats and 64% of White Democrats say Biden should step aside based on the debate. Democrats older than 50 are roughly divided over whether Biden’s should continue.
There is no ideological divide among Democrats about whether Biden should quit the race or remain as a candidate, with 55 % of liberal Democrats wanting Biden to drop out.
In a rousing campaign rally the day after the debate, Biden said “I might not walk as easily or talk as smoothly as I used to,” but “what I do know is how to tell the truth”.