Today's Edition
By: Mohammed Salem Al Salmi*
The second Iran War, which broke out on February 28, 2026, was far more than a purely military confrontation. It revealed a complex conflict in which conventional hard power, asymmetric warfare tactics, AI technologies and calculations of deterrence and alliances were deeply intertwined.
The conflict also brought together military security, economic security, energy security, trade and maritime routes, advances in defence technology, cybersecurity, competing narratives and the roles of non-state actors.
The outbreak of the war and the evolution of military confrontations since February constituted a comprehensive test of the Middle East's regional order and the security alliances and alignments established across the region over recent decades.
Although developments are still unfolding, the war has generated far-reaching economic, political and security repercussions at the national, regional and international levels.
The 2026 Iran War, thus, raises questions extending beyond the immediate military outcomes for the parties involved. These include the role of competing narratives in shaping perceptions of the war and its participants, as well as the influence of non-state actors on regional conflicts and strategic rivalries.
The war also raises questions about the nature of the Middle East's regional order, the limits of its capacity to absorb shocks and its ability to reorganise relations among its states.
Moreover, it has put the effectiveness of international institutions to the test in areas such as trade, energy, the security of vital waterways and supply chains.
The war exposed the limitations of deterrence and regional security mechanisms and brought significant changes to the balance of power and patterns of interaction in the Middle East.
However, it did not produce a new regional order. Instead, the region is entering a period of fluidity, uncertainty and mounting crises within an already troubled regional order.
It is moving toward a regional environment in which the security dilemma persists, and alliances are increasingly shaped by immediate and overlapping interests.
Consequently, regional stability will depend on the ability of states to address the institutional and economic vulnerabilities that lie at the root of conflict.
This raises fundamental questions about the region's need for a new security architecture built on stronger deterrence, greater resilience, new forms of strategic cooperation and innovative regional security arrangements in the period ahead.
The war also disrupted oil and gas flows, trade and international supply chains, triggering the most severe energy crisis since the Great Depression of the late 1920s and early 1930s.
This underscores the need to build more resilient networks of connectivity while balancing efficiency, strategic autonomy and economic interdependence.
As part of its efforts to keep pace with regional and international developments and fulfill its forward-looking research mission, TRENDS Research & Advisory is organising its sixth annual conference today, Monday, October 12, 2026, to examine the post-war future of the Middle East.
The conference brings together a distinguished group of researchers, experts and policymakers, including His Excellency Mike Pompeo, former US Secretary of State and former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency; Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM); His Excellency Dr Ali Rashid Al-Nuaimi, Member of the Federal National Council and Chairman of its Defense, Interior and Foreign Affairs Committee; and Ambassador Mike Waltz, US Representative to the United Nations.
The TRENDS Annual Conference aims to explore the implications of the changes accompanying the outbreak and development of the war for regional security, partnerships, alignments and alliances.
It will also examine the war's economic repercussions, with particular focus on energy and trade and assess the role of competing narratives in shaping public opinion and international perceptions during crises.
The conference organisers and participants seek to develop a clear framework for understanding the emerging transformations in the regional order and anticipating their implications, thereby supporting more effective responses to future crises in the Middle East.
*Director General – TRENDS Research & Advisory
