Today's Edition
Abdulaziz Ahmed Alshehhi*
The current war that broke out on February 28 can no longer be regarded as simply a military confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Months of fighting, going back and forth with ceasefires and direct and indirect talks, have altered the security landscape of the region, affected trade routes and energy flows, and brought the Gulf directly into a conflict it never wished for and even tried to prevent before it started.
The question that needs to be answered now is not only how or when the war will end, but also what kind of Middle East will emerge from it.
This question is at the heart of the TRENDS Global Annual Forum, which will take place under the TRENDS Group on October 12, 2026, with the theme “Sustainable Security: The Post-War Future of the Middle East”. The forum brings together policymakers, security experts, and academics to discuss a region that is being tested in terms of its political and security foundations and, in some areas, reshaped.
The GCC at the Heart of the Conflict
When the United States and Israel carried out their attack on Iran, Tehran chose to direct its retaliation at the Gulf states even before attacking Israel. All GCC states, including Jordan and Iraq, during this war have reported Iranian missiles and drones targeting different locations, including civilian infrastructure, ports, and oil fields.
The Gulf can therefore no longer be treated as the geography surrounding the conflict; it is part of the regional security equation.
This also applies to energy. This war has shown the world that energy security isn’t just about reserves; it's about reliance on production and supply. The economic consequences of this war soon spread worldwide.
According to the International Energy Agency, North Sea-dated crude exceeded $110 per barrel, while Gulf production of more than 14 million barrels per day was suspended due to severe restrictions on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Around 80 percent of the oil passing through Hormuz is destined for Asian markets, including China, India, Japan and South Korea.
What happens in the Gulf, therefore, does not remain there; the disruption in the strait and in energy flows affects even households beyond the Middle East.
Rethinking Security
One of the main outcomes that is understandable even now, during this conflict, is that sustainable security must extend beyond military tools and alliances. It entails protecting ports, energy facilities, water systems, digital infrastructure, and supply chains. It also requires crisis-management mechanisms and diplomacy capable of containing incidents before they turn into wars.
The region needs a holistic approach to security, one that doesn’t forsake old, established alliances like the one it is known to have with Washington. However, it also needs a safer level of dependence on it while exploring other alliances to complement it.
But what are those alliances, and how will the states in the region achieve them while also embarking on their march to strategic autonomy? These are the questions the TRENDS Annual Forum aims to address: In what ways will security in the Gulf evolve? And what kind of balance of power will the war lead to?
For years, much of the discussion has centered on how the world views the Middle East. Perhaps the more crucial question now is how the Middle East perceives its own transformation and its future status in the world—because ultimately, this is not only about how the war ends; it's about what follows.
*The writer is senior researcher and Deputy General Manager at TRENDS Research & Advisory.
