Today's Edition
KIRSTIN BERNABE (ABU DHABI)
With a "99% probability of El Niño" in the Pacific through early 2027, UAE winter is expected to be warmer — and rainier — than usual, according to the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).
The seasonal forecast has recently sparked conversations online about UAE weather, but the NCM stressed: there's no cause for alarm.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that sees warm waters build up in the eastern Pacific, triggering weather shifts around the world. The impact varies by region, with some areas experiencing drought, others rain.
For the country, it signals "a warmer than usual and potentially wetter winter”, with more humid, foggy mornings along the coast, said Dr Mohamed Alebri, Director of the NCM's Meteorology Department.
"The NCM outlook indicates near- to above-average temperatures and rainfall from October through February, with a greater chance of severe weather activity later in the period," he told Aletihad.
Since El Niño's influence on UAE weather could linger until April, there's also a higher chance of "late-season rain events”, he added. The climate pattern can increase rainfall as warmer ocean waters heat the air above, causing moist air to rise and clouds to form.
A 99% El Niño probability in the tropical Pacific, however, doesn't mean non-stop rain for the UAE, Dr Alebri clarified. "Rather, it means a higher likelihood of intermittent rain systems and, at times, heavy, intense rainfall."
Where Will It Rain More?
The UAE's eastern and northeastern areas — from Fujairah to Khor Fakkan, Kalba, and parts of Ras Al Khaimah — are naturally most exposed to heavy rain impact. But Dr Alebri said any part of the country could also experience "severe weather with heavy rainfall at times" during this period.
“However, a seasonal forecast cannot identify months in advance which emirate or neighbourhood will exactly receive a specific heavy rain event,” he added.
El Niño is nothing new to the UAE. Conditions in 1997-1998 brought above-normal rainfall to the country's climate record, and a similarly strong event recurred globally in 2015-2016, Dr Alebri noted.
"But El Niño does not produce identical outcomes in every event or every emirate," he said. "It will depend on the actual weather systems developing over the region."
What matters now is preparation, Dr Alebri said. “This is the time to review emergency plans, drainage and flood management systems, infrastructure readiness, and coordination between relevant agencies.”
Regional and global weather patterns shall also be tracked closely so early warnings can be issued when “severe weather” conditions develop, he added.
For the public, Dr Alebri reiterated that there's no reason to worry. Instead, he urged everyone to follow NCM's weather advisories, especially during periods when heavy rainfall or thunderstorms are forecast.
