Today's Edition
ABU DHABI (ALETIHAD)
A specialised study titled "Iran in the Equation of Regional Transformation: Forecasting Pathways of Containment and Escalation through Artificial Intelligence", published by TRENDS Research & Advisory, part of TRENDS Group, explores the Iranian conflict as a paradigm of complex, multi-level conflicts.
It provides an intelligent foresight model combining tools of futures studies with applications of artificial intelligence (AI). The study conceptualises the conflict as a dynamic, changing system and examines its nuclear, military, regional, economic, cyber, internal and international technical elements, as well as their non-linear relationships.
Prepared by Dr Saif Saeed Salem Al Neyadi, an academic and researcher specialising in artificial intelligence, the study is based on documentary analysis, cross-impact analysis, and a scenario-building approach. It adopts three medium-term scenarios, including: tense containment, wide regional escalation, and repositioning with conditional settlement.
Each scenario has its own indicators and strategic implications. The specialised study showed that the Iranian conflict should be considered from a comprehensive, systemic approach that combines its various elements into an interconnected network of mutual influences. This makes it feasible to understand current dynamics and predict possible future trajectories.
In this context, the scenario technique has proved well suited to the nature of the conflict because of its capacity for open-endedness and uncertainty, rather than unilateral linear projections. The study concluded that the "tense containment" scenario remains the most probable in the short and medium term.
In contrast, the "wide regional escalation" scenario remains the most dangerous, especially considering the fragility of current balances and the multiplicity of interaction arenas. The study emphasises that the most effective tactics are flexible, multi-instrument approaches that can adjust to varied conditions.
Accordingly, the study aimed not only to analyse the Iranian war, but also to establish a practical intelligent foresight framework that can be applied to other complex conflicts, thereby increasing its scientific, methodological, and practical value.
It also highlights how AI may considerably improve foresight processes, particularly horizon scanning, pattern recognition, and testing scenario robustness, if used as part of proactive, transparent, and human-centred governance frameworks.
The findings suggest that the Iranian nuclear file is a major driver of the conflict and that the plurality of regional and cyber venues makes the system more fragile and more prone to strategic miscalculation. Iran's domestic dimension has also become a decisive determinant of foreign behaviour, especially amid economic pressures.
