Today's Edition
By: Abdulaziz Ahmed Alshehhi*
The region is witnessing a serious return to the whirlwind of escalation between the United States and Iran. In a scene that brings to mind the events of the past five months and the unprecedented tension, the situation this time is more complex.
The recent escalation shows that the region has never left the circle of confrontation; in fact, it is entering a new one with multiple engagement areas and a greater reliance on missiles and drones, and blatant targeting of energy and desalination facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain by Iran. This makes GCC states at the heart of this escalation in terms of security, economy and strategy.
The past years have proven that GCC states are not immune to the ramifications of regional conflicts. The Iranian aggression, whether directly or through proxies, by targeting oil facilities, threatening maritime navigation and using drones and missile attacks, is an obvious indicator that Gulf security has become an essential part of regional deterrence equations.
This increases the level of risks that require some sort of collective deterrence that complements and builds on individual capabilities. Despite that, every GCC state has been noticeably working on developing its defence systems, but the nature of the current threats makes collective coordination a strategic necessity and not just a political option.
Recent security threats depend on speed, numerical saturation and coordination on multiple fronts, which is hard for any nation to do singularly, no matter the capabilities; we have witnessed that even during this war, in the case of the United States.
From this comes the importance of building or shaping a joint Gulf defence system based on the exchange of intelligence, connected alert systems and the development of mechanisms in this defence that allow for speed in decision-making and responding.
In this context, it shouldn’t be interpreted that enhancing Gulf defence capabilities is a call for escalation or a call for open confrontation, but a way to maintain and safeguard stability. Effective deterrence begins with prevention and decreasing the chances of being attacked and, by doing so, giving diplomacy a larger space to work and better chances of success.
The return of military escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran means that the region still faces complex security threats, and that the Gulf states are primarily being affected by this escalation and by its expanding scenarios, directly and indirectly. The next phase does need a certain level of coordination.
It doesn’t have to be a “GCC NATO”, as many are saying, but it has to start somewhere, as is required by the nature of current and future threats. A shift from the traditional layout of coordination is needed to enhance collective security and to ensure the stability of the region in the face of increasing threats. Collective threats require collective will.
*Deputy General Manager of TRENDS Research & Advisory
