Today's Edition
Dr Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali*
It has become clear that Iranian threats are now a reality and a collective danger to the entire Middle East. With the outbreak of war between Israel, the United States and Iran, the region as a whole, particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, has entered a new phase of risk that requires redefining the concept of regional security and adopting a new strategy to address the dangers surrounding the region, based on two supporting pillars: economy and security.
The GCC countries have maintained a policy of de-escalation in the region and have pursued diplomacy as the foundation of their relations with regional countries.
However, the response came in the form of aggressive Iranian attacks on the Gulf countries, disregarding the principle of good neighbourliness and threatening the security of the peoples and countries of the Gulf.
Although the war has paused under a truce, the conflict among the involved parties continues, even if it has temporarily stopped. It appears that the Gulf countries are developing their strategy to deter anyone who may attempt to threaten their interests and security again, through a new formulation of the equations of war and peace in the region.
Following Iran’s targeting of the Gulf countries, politicians in the Gulf have placed the map of regional and global relations and alliances under review, in order to reassess who can be relied upon and who deserves to remain on the list of allies, including in political, economic, financial and strategic aspects.
Those who stood against the Gulf countries or adopted neutral positions should not remain allies. Based on the principle of interests and positions during the war, the Gulf countries will shape the form of their new alliances, including with countries and regional organisations.
At the internal level, the Gulf continues toward success and prosperity as witnessed in recent years, with further strengthening of economic, technological and defence capabilities, and with aspirations to participate in managing the vital maritime corridors in the Middle East, rather than leaving them to be controlled by any single party or relying on uncertain external guarantees in the strategy of maritime security in the region.
In the Gulf countries’ path to restoring balance in the region, the matter should not stop at the truce or the end of the war. Legal and political responsibility must be placed on all those who caused destruction and damage in the region, along with demands for fair and comprehensive compensation, including compensation for lost revenues and economic opportunities.
To ensure that any aggression becomes politically, economically and militarily costly, compensation alone is not sufficient; the aggressor must be bound by international guarantees. Any future understanding must be linked to guarantees to stop attacks, prevent interference in internal affairs and end support for armed proxies, with sufficient conditions and commitments to ensure that the region’s security is not undermined again.
Reconsidering security and economic agreements is one of the outcomes of the war. Although the defence partnerships of the Gulf countries have proven effective in defence, some appear to require greater cooperation and repositioning in light of increasing regional risks, as well as readiness to confront present and future threats.
This includes establishing new military and non-military alliances, or deepening cooperation and coordination within existing alliances, while diversifying defence partnerships alongside strengthening self-capabilities to the greatest possible extent, without non-interest-based calculations that restrict the movement of the Gulf countries.
Through their economic, military, social and, above all, political strategies, the Gulf countries have succeeded in defending themselves against Iranian attacks with a high level of effectiveness and advanced technological capability.
However, war reveals underlying realities, and as these become clear, refining alliances and developing military, technological and economic capabilities have become fundamental pillars in the strategy of the Gulf countries after the threat posed by Iran to their resources in a region marked by instability and division.
By reconsidering the security system, the Gulf countries will diversify their security partners alongside continued development and effectiveness in protecting international corridors and creating new ones, while strengthening their own military and intelligence capabilities, independently and in cooperation with international partners.
At the forefront remain the Gulf’s own capabilities, supported by enhanced readiness for any future tensions or instability in the Middle East.
* The writer is the CEO of TRENDS Research & Advisory
