Today's Edition
ABU DHABI (ALETIHAD)
Scientists at the Mubadala ACCESS Center at NYU Abu Dhabi have identified the atmospheric and climate conditions that trigger extreme summer heat in the Arabian Gulf, a development that could allow marine heatwaves to be forecast two to three months in advance, according to a new study released on Monday.
The study explains why some summers in the Arabian Gulf become unusually hot, creating marine heatwaves that pose risks to coral reefs, fisheries and coastal ecosystems. While the Gulf is already the warmest sea in the world during summer, the researchers said extreme heat years can push temperatures beyond the tolerance levels of even well-adapted marine species, triggering coral bleaching and ecosystem disruption.
Using a combination of long-term observations and advanced ocean model simulations, the research team found that marine heatwaves in the Gulf occur when two key wind systems change simultaneously. According to the study, local northwesterly Shamal winds weaken while summer Indian monsoon winds intensify. This leads to increased moisture in the atmosphere over the Gulf, which traps heat at the sea surface.
The researchers said these conditions are most likely to develop during La Niña events, when colder-than-normal waters appear in the tropical Pacific, and when the North Atlantic Oscillation enters a weaker phase, altering storm patterns over the Atlantic. When both climate patterns coincide, the Arabian Gulf experiences its highest sea temperatures.
“The study reveals something surprising,” said Zouhair Lachkar, senior scientist at NYU Abu Dhabi and lead author of the study. “Unlike other oceans, where marine heatwaves are often caused by clear skies and intense sunshine, the Gulf’s extreme sea temperatures happen under humid, hazy conditions. And while El Niño usually drives heatwaves elsewhere, here it is La Niña that favours them.”
John Burt, co-director of the Mubadala ACCESS Center and senior author of the study, said the findings could play a critical role in protecting marine ecosystems. “Our findings have important implications for predicting extreme heat events weeks to months before they occur,” he said. “This gives marine managers and decision makers advance notice to monitor and protect vulnerable ecosystems such as coral reefs. This aligns with our goal at Mubadala ACCESS of producing regionally relevant research that has global impact.”
The study highlights the potential for developing early-warning systems for marine heatwaves in the Arabian Gulf, which could help safeguard biodiversity, fisheries and coastal communities as climate change intensifies extreme weather patterns, the researchers said.
