Today's Edition
By Abdulla Aqeel Alkindi*
Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan has taken a strategic shift by asking the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) to lay down its arms and silence the guns in favour of politics and peace after decades of armed conflict to secure the rights of the Kurds.
This pivotal move is expected to have an impact not only on Türkiye but also on the entire Middle East. It has been welcomed by Türkiye's ruling party, Kurdish communities in Türkiye, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria.
Ocalan called on PKK fighters to disarm through the Turkish People's Equality and Democracy Party after its delegation visited him in his prison, where he has been held for 25 years.
His statement followed an initiative by the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), a coalition partner of Türkiye's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) within the People's Alliance.
While the essence of the call is disarmament, it also outlined a roadmap for the transition to politics within "a democratic society that respects identities and freedom of expression, and an open political space".
However, the success of this call requires negotiations, arrangements, and time to reach tangible results, especially given the complexities among the various factions of the PKK.
Also, the Turkish constitution may be amended in relation to the cultural and political rights of the Kurds, including language and political representation, as well as issues concerning the government system.
Still, progress to achieve positive results may be hampered if the Kurds and the Turkish government fail to reach consensus on de-escalation and stability.
Beyond Türkiye, the Middle East, particularly Syria, Iraq, and possibly Iran, will be impacted by this development. If the initiative extends to Syria and Iraq, the Kurdish issue could take on different dimensions.
However, the response strategy may vary from one country to the other. The Syrian Kurds have welcomed Ocalan's call as a positive step, but it does not include the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), complicating their position.
This comes at a time when Türkiye-allied Syrian authorities have demanded that the SDF dissolve itself and integrate into the new Syrian army.
Meanwhile, Türkiye continues to carry out military operations against the SDF in northeastern Syria.
If this initiative succeeds, relations between the PKK and the Kurdish leadership in Erbil may improve, possibly easing Türkiye's pressure on Iraq to expel PKK fighters.
Currently, Türkiye conducts military operations in northern Iraq to target PKK militants, but such actions may no longer be necessary if the root cause is addressed.
Furthermore, Kurdish fighters in regional countries who believe in the idea of a "Democratic Society" may take the same course of action in the medium term, based on the outcome of this initiative in Türkiye.
This is particularly true because Türkiye does not see the Kurdish issue as a domestic crisis but rather as a regional security threat. Amid complex regional dynamics, Türkiye is pushing, through regional partners and the international community, to disarm Kurdish fighters.
Ocalan's call does not mean the end of the Kurdish issue in Türkiye but rather a strategic change. The success of this course of action in both Türkiye and the wider region depends on a real commitment to resolving the Kurdish issue through peaceful means; otherwise, the initiative will be futile.
This is not the first initiative of its kind; previous ceasefires had been declared at various points in time, and the 2015 reconciliation initiative also aimed to find a peaceful solution.
However, this initiative may be the most serious one, despite the numerous challenges, such as the difficulty of reaching common ground between the PKK and the Turkish government in the absence of a clear roadmap for addressing the Kurdish issue.
The geopolitical scene of the Kurdish issue is complicated, as the Kurds have diverse regional and international relationships that contradict or align with Türkiye's interests. Achieving a sustainable resolution requires a delicate balance and the establishment of political mechanisms that guarantee both Kurdish rights and Turkish and regional security.
In other words, both Ankara and the Kurds must pursue policies that promote peace and stability, rather than short-term manoeuvring for political gains that might soon be in vain.
The significance of this initiative will become clearer as details of the agreement with Ocalan emerge and the consequent steps both sides take.
*The writer is a researcher at TRENDS Research & Advisory
