Today's Edition
ABU DHABI (ALETIHAD)
As part of its engagement at the Paris International Book Fair, TRENDS Research and Advisory debuted the French iteration of the “Muslim Brotherhood Global Influence Index”, the world’s first metric to gauge the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood across different geographic regions and scopes.
TV presenter Saoud Alkaabi moderated the symposium where the index was introduced, explaining that the index gauges the group’s influence across five primary indicators: the influence of the international organisation, political sway, economic impact, media reach, and social imprint.
A Sharp Decline in Power
The group has experienced a significant downturn in its power and influence, as revealed by the index, which was developed in collaboration with the University of Montreal in Canada and the University Platform for the Study of Islam (Pluriel). The findings indicate a marked decrease in the group’s overall strength, plummeting from 64% (strong) to 48% (medium) between 2021 and 2023. This decline can be attributed to various factors, including weakened media influence and mobilisation capacity, internal discord leading to fragmentation, and shifting geopolitical dynamics, such as the reconciliation between the Arab Quartet countries, Qatar, and Türkiye, which have undermined the group’s interests. Additionally, increased security measures, legal prosecution, exposure of hidden aspects through media productions, and heightened public awareness of the group’s agenda have contributed to its diminishing influence.
He pointed out that previous setbacks resulted in a decline in the group’s overall comprehensive strength from 64% in 2021 to 49.3% in 2022, and further to 48% in 2023. The index results indicated a decrease in the group’s strength across all major indicators: political power dropped from 67.7% to 47.5%, economic influence decreased from 66.6% to 60.4%, media presence dwindled from 89.2% to 46.6%, and social impact declined from 77.5% to 61.8%.
Shifts in Power and Influence
Under the supervision of Dr. Wael Saleh, an expert in political Islam at TRENDS, alongside Dr. Patrice Brodeur, associate professor at the University of Montreal, and Hamad Al Hosani, a researcher in political Islam at TRENDS, the index revealed alterations in the distribution of power across geographic regions.
Notably, Asia emerged as the foremost contributor to the Muslim Brotherhood’s global influence in 2023, relegating North and South America to second place. Additionally, the group’s influence witnessed an uptick in Africa, but experienced a decline in both the Arab world and in Europe.
The “Muslim Brotherhood Global Influence Index” (2022-2023) indicates a trajectory towards decline and eventual disappearance. This trend can be attributed to various factors, including internal vulnerabilities within the group, shifts in regional and international dynamics, and evolving perceptions of Arab public opinion towards it.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS, said: “The index serves as a vital tool for understanding the evolving landscape surrounding the Muslim Brotherhood on a global scale, offering objective insights into the group’s influence across various domains.”
He emphasised that the release of the French version of the “Muslim Brotherhood Global Influence Index” reflects TRENDS’ dedication to raising international awareness about the dangers posed by the group and promoting collaborative efforts to combat its extremist ideology.
He remarked that TRENDS has given special importance to its Political Islam Studies Program, recognising the threat posed by the movement and its corrosive ideology. The centre has emerged as a prominent global reference in this domain, and has produced a dedicated encyclopaedia on the Muslim Brotherhood comprising 35 published volumes to date, 11 of which have been translated into 15 languages. TRENDS also continuously releases studies addressing various aspects of the subject.
Dr. Saleh elaborated that the index introduces a pioneering model, the first of its kind, with which to assess the power and influence of religious groups. This model combines both quantitative and qualitative methodologies, utilising main and sub-indicators to gauge various facets of the group’s influence across 50 countries spanning five continents.
Additionally, the index addresses the escalating demand for timely and insightful indicators regarding the present and future trajectories of the group’s global influence, which are crucial for policymakers to formulate swift and effective responses. The index aims to offer impartial and objective evaluations concerning the group’s capabilities and its potential future endeavours.
Professor Brodeur noted that the index is part of the ongoing endeavours by researchers at TRENDS to establish principles for an Arab cognitive framework in examining the phenomenon of political Islam. Additionally, it aims to identify new areas of research, with a particular focus on adopting applied methodologies like the index. Such approaches are instrumental in comprehensively understanding the phenomenon of Brotherhood Islamism, monitoring its dynamics, and tracking its transformations across various dimensions.
Professor Michel Younis, General Coordinator of the University Platform for the Study of Islam, highlighted the significance of the index, noting that it offers a comprehensive roadmap of the group’s global influence using rigorous scientific methods.
The index’s geographic analysis offers valuable insights into the group’s strengths and weaknesses across social, economic, political, and media domains, filling a notable gap in the literature in the French language.
Al Hosani highlighted that the group’s influence peaked during the “Arab Spring,” emphasising that the index provides valuable insights into how the group has since experienced a decline in influence and power. The index offers a scientific and measurable assessment of this decline across all levels and geographical regions under scrutiny.
Fahd Al Mahri, Head of TRENDS’ Dubai Office, provided insights into the centre’s recent launch of a measurement tool to examine how social media influencers worldwide perceive the group. This tool, introduced earlier this month, scrutinises social media discussions throughout 2023 to assess the group’s popularity and public opinion trends.
Al Mahri underscored that the measurement employs an analytical model named “SWOT”, evaluating strengths, weaknesses, threats, and opportunities pertaining to the group’s influence.
Notably, the analysis revealed that 68.8% of the sample exhibited a negative orientation towards the group, with discussions often portraying the group as distorting Islam and holding extremist views.
