Today's Edition
BATOOL GHAITH (ABU DHABI)
Global freshwater reserves are shrinking by an average of 324 billion cubic metres every year — enough water to meet the needs of 280 million people, according to a new World Bank report titled “Continental Drying: A Threat to Our Common Future”.
The report revealed that global freshwater reserve has dropped by an average of 3% of freshwater supply.
Using advanced satellite data and enhanced resolution models, researchers can now monitor water changes down to the county level, offering clearer insight into local aquifers and how water usage, climate patterns, and land use are affecting them.
These tools allowed researchers to pinpoint not just where water is disappearing, but why.
In an interview with Aletihad, Fan Zhang, lead author of the report and Lead Economist at the Global Lead for Water Economy and Climate Change, explained that the causes of continental drying fall into three main categories: global warming, worsening droughts, and unsustainable land and water use.
“We found that areas with more forest and wetlands tend to hold more water, but water depletion is much faster in areas with more urbanisation or intense irrigation,” Zhang said.
Energy prices also play a surprising role, she said. “In countries that rely heavily on irrigation for agriculture, which consumes more than 90% of global water, we saw that cheaper energy is associated with faster water depletion. This is because low energy costs make it easier and cheaper to over-pump groundwater, especially when water is not priced.”
The report also highlighted how countries with weak integrated water resource management — a framework that balances the water demands of agriculture, cities, and conservation — experience water loss at 2 to 3 times the rate of countries with stronger systems.
“Even when you control for temperature and precipitation, how you manage land and water really matters,” Zhang emphasised.
Zhang detailed how drying trends are devastating both ecosystems and economies.
“Freshwater depletion is increasing the likelihood and severity of wildfires, especially in biodiversity hotspots,” she said.
The report found that one standard deviation increase in freshwater depletion raises wildfire risk by 26% globally and by 50% in vulnerable areas rich in biodiversity. This drying also hits agriculture hard.
“In the hottest and driest places, even a small drop in rainfall can have exponential effects on crop yields,” Zhang said.
A World Bank simulation showed that a 100 mm decrease in rainfall in India, a key food producer, could reduce global real income by $68 billion.
The most jarring insight from the report, Zhang shared, is the toll on human livelihoods, particularly in developing regions like Sub-Saharan Africa.
“Between 600,000 and 900,000 jobs are lost each year due to droughts in that region alone,” she said. “That is about 7 to 9% of annual job creation.”
Vulnerable groups, women, the elderly, low-skilled workers, and especially landless farmers, are hit the hardest, Zhang said.
“For landless farmers, the impact is six times higher. A drought leads to a 14% decline in employment for them,” she added.
Zhang emphasised the importance of drought resilience through smarter water use, expanded irrigation, and the adoption of drought-resistant crops. She also pointed to broader measures, improving access to financial resources, boosting human capital investment, and creating non-farm employment opportunities in rural areas.
“Connecting rural communities to markets and building their ability to earn income beyond agriculture is essential,” Zhang said.
The report called for a three-part global strategy: improving the management of water demand through pricing and awareness; increasing supply through recycling, reuse, and desalination; and optimising allocation to prioritise essential needs and high-efficiency users.
