Today's Edition
MARIAM SALEH ALJNEIBI
The writer is a researcher at TRENDS Research & Advisory
After nearly 14 years of armed conflict, Syrians long to return to their homeland. More than half of Syria’s population has been displaced, with millions uprooted internally in a country torn apart by violence, division, and foreign interventions.
The economy has collapsed, misery has deepened, and despair has become widespread. However, the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s government in December 2024 brought a glimmer of hope for the future, changing the calculations of many Syrians who then decided to return to their homeland.
According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), about one million Syrian refugees have returned since December 2024, seeking to reunite with their families, reclaim what remains of their homes, and restore their community ties after years of asylum.
But more support is needed to facilitate the return of others, especially from neighbouring countries, as the security remains fragile and unstable, and the country is in dire need of reconstruction.
The foundations of the Syrian state and society have been destroyed. Reconstruction is central to reestablishing life and stability, especially at a time when the country faces the collapse of basic services: residential neighbourhoods reduced to rubble, hospitals leveled to dust, schools damaged, an unstable power supply, inadequate water networks, and widespread destruction of homes, all making the resettlement of returnees extremely difficult.
Voluntary return carries two dimensions: the decision of Syrians abroad to go back and the pressure from host countries eager to see them return due to mounting political, economic, and security challenges.
While over 7 million remain displaced inside Syria, another 4.5 million live as refugees abroad. Achieving sustainable return and reintegration demands vast investment and substantial financing.
The international community, alongside the private sector and Syrians in the diaspora, are expected to play a vital role in alleviating suffering and advancing reconstruction. Yet for now, the landscape remains dominated by lofty promises and fragmented, piecemeal investments.
Estimates for Syria’s reconstruction range between $300 billion and $500 billion.
Yet despite the urgent need to launch an international recovery process, formidable internal obstacles remain. Institutions are fragile, lacking both the efficiency and organisational capacity required to manage a massive strategic undertaking such as reconstruction.
There is no imminent international conference on rebuilding Syria, and the global community still views the country as being in a transitional phase. As such, it is unwilling to commit substantial financing in an environment marred by instability, weak institutions, and deep uncertainty about the future.
Compounding these challenges are the fragmentation of armed groups on the ground, entrenched sectarian divisions, the absence of a clear vision for the post-transition period, and the lack of any framework for transitional justice.
Still, the picture is not entirely bleak. Syrians have made some headway in easing sanctions, particularly from the United States and Europe. International institutions may consider extending loans to Syria, but the government’s resistance to loans has limited financing opportunities, leaving Syria reliant on selective investments from certain Arab and regional states.
The Syrian government has established the Syrian Development Fund as a financing vehicle for reconstruction and infrastructure development - seeking to pool the efforts of the state, civil society, the private sector, and Syrians inside and outside the country. Funding remains weak, nevertheless.
Amid these circumstances, the government faces daunting challenges related to restoring electricity, oil, and water supplies; rebuilding vast swaths of destroyed housing; tackling rampant unemployment; stabilising fragile security conditions; ensuring social reintegration; and protecting returnees from the threat of revenge or persecution. In addition, there are landmines and explosive remnants of war, which pose lethal risks.
The question of reconstruction cannot be separated from political considerations. For sustainable living in Syria, the process must be anchored in a political transition that allows inclusive participation in governance, guided by a clear vision for the future.
It also requires political and economic openness to the world and the rebuilding of national institutions, alongside intensified negotiations with regional and international powers to shape a viable reconstruction pathway. Humanitarian and relief support from the United Nations is equally essential.
Signs of genuine political transition, coupled with effective governance by the Syrian administration, could accelerate funding for reconstruction and attract investment in Syria’s future.
