Today's Edition
By: Ayesha Khalfan Alremeithi*
Political, economic, and security tensions are increasing on both sides of the Atlantic. While transatlantic ties have been deeply rooted for a long time, they appear to be weakening now. The reasons behind this crack go beyond defence spending from NATO's European member states, but rather they stem from a divergence between the American and European views, as well as their perspectives on the existing international order.
Washington is gradually moving away from its Atlanticist strategy, which had been a pillar of US foreign policy since the Cold War. The focus has increasingly turned towards the Indo-Pacific region, where China is competing for global dominance.
Nevertheless, the "Trumpian" approach has taken this shift even further by not relying on Europe as a strategic partner and by increasing the divergence on multiple levels. This state of affairs may force Europe to develop a new strategy across the levels of defence, economics, technology, and security.
The American-European disagreement is no longer based solely on reviewing the share of the European Union in NATO funding or even cutting or halting aid to Ukraine. Thus, European concerns over Russia are growing, particularly regarding the future of European security amid less US presence. Isolationism under the slogan of "America First" is also driving the economic divergence between the two sides through protectionist policies and varying growth trajectories.
The US approach is based on preserving the country's position within the international system, but Washington's moves contradict the very structure of the existing international system. Rising trade tensions with both allies, such as the European Union, and rivals, such as China, may ultimately undermine US objectives.
Protectionist measures aimed at safeguarding American industries and balancing trade deficits could instead trigger retaliatory actions, potentially causing a broader economic slowdown that could spill over into global markets. Given that the United States and Europe together account for nearly 40% of global GDP, such disruptions could have far-reaching consequences.
As a result of American and European policies, the map of economic and political alliances may change, and Europeans may seek to deepen trade relations with Asia and Latin America, thereby reshaping the trade system map. This, in turn, may benefit China at the expense of the United States and contribute to the instability of international markets, high inflation, and slowing growth.
Although the American policies towards Europe echo those we saw during Trump's first term – and even in earlier periods, albeit to a lesser degree – the tensions this time around seem to be heading towards more confrontational scenarios, particularly in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. The prioritisation of transatlantic ties in US foreign policy is now in question. Moreover, internal shifts within the American political landscape may have deepened the divide between the two sides, gradually pushing them further apart.
Russia has emerged as one of the primary beneficiaries of the American-European divergence. Despite facing international sanctions over its war in Ukraine and large-scale American military support for Kyiv, Moscow's perspective on European security and potential war resolution scenarios is now being considered in ways that seemed unlikely when it was more isolated from the international system.
Similarly, China has benefitted, at least commercially, from the war in Ukraine due to its relationship with Russia. This has enabled Beijing to replace a significant part of US-Europe trade volume in its favour.
In Europe, key players like Germany, France, and the UK face both opportunities and challenges in enhancing their military capabilities and creating a European security alternative. As American-European relations continue to diverge, at least during Trump's presidency and possibly beyond, the expectation that ties will simply revert to their previous state is no longer viable.
Instead, Europe must focus on strengthening its own power base. The world is changing, former adversaries may become allies, and the time has come for Europe to rely on its own strength within the international power structure.
*The writer is a researcher at TRENDS Research & Advisory
