Today's Edition
AHMED SHAABAN (CAIRO, MOGADISHU)
Somalia continues to grapple with various terrorist attacks, with December witnessing seven incidents resulting in the death or injury of 30 individuals. Despite the army’s success in neutralising dozens of Al-Shabaab group members in the final week of the previous year, security challenges remain a concern.
The 2023 Global Terrorism Index highlighted the Somali army’s achievements in expelling Al-Shabaab from strategic locations, including Mudug Province in the Galmudug region.
The completion of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) withdrawal in 2024 marks a significant milestone in Somalia’s counter-terrorism progress.
Somali political analyst Dr. Yasin Said acknowledged that ATMIS’ withdrawal in 2024 poses a critical challenge for Somalia in combatting Al-Shabaab. He anticipates that the terrorist group might exploit the security vacuum and regional tensions to expand its influence.
Dr. Said underscored the regional challenges and threats to Somalia, including external interference in its internal affairs, which potentially bolsters Al-Shabaab’s capacity to garner external support. He stressed the importance of strengthening regional diplomatic initiatives and African Union backing for Somalia, focusing on national unity, law enforcement, and adherence to international law.
To mitigate the impact of the African forces’ withdrawal, Dr. Said recommended enhancing national security capabilities, governance, sustainable development, and economic opportunities. Implementing transparency and anti-corruption measures is vital for restoring public trust in the government, he added.
He also emphasised the need for humanitarian aid, intelligence sharing, and military support for Somalia. Dr. Said called for concerted counter-terrorism efforts and regional stability, highlighting the necessity of intensifying security measures, improving regional cooperation, and addressing underlying causes of unrest, including tribal and political tensions.
Salah Halima, Deputy President of the Egyptian Council for African Affairs, noted that Al-Shabaab’s activities have been largely confined to the south, showcasing the Somali army’s increasing efficacy. Halima pointed out the army’s growing capability to combat terrorist organisations and its preparedness to handle security challenges post-ATMIS withdrawal.
He noted that lifting the 30-year arms embargo on Somalia by the International Security Council is an important step, as well as regional and international political support for the Somali army and government.
Halima anticipates that completely eradicating Al-Shabaab will be gradual, noting that increased encirclement and terrorist activities might be observed in 2024. This scenario presents an opportunity to address broader security issues in the Red Sea region, he added.
