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Stability in Afghanistan fragile, threats of repeated chaos, conflict emerge: Experts

Stability in Afghanistan fragile, threats of repeated chaos, conflict emerge: Experts
2 Nov 2023 09:31

DINA MAHMOUD (LONDON) - Despite the relative calm currently prevailing in Afghanistan, regional and international actors are concerned about the possibility of renewed disturbances in the country, which could once again become a haven for terrorist and extremist organisations, posing a threat to the interests of Western countries and their neighbours.

Security and intelligence circles in several world capitals warn that the recent decline in bloody attacks in Afghanistan may have left a “deceptive calm” given the ongoing risks posed by the Khorasan branch of Dae’sh terrorist group, especially in the eastern and northern regions.

Although the campaign launched by Kabul’s ruling authorities against this bloody group has, over the past few months, reduced its operational capabilities in eastern Afghanistan, elements of that organisation have shown its adaptability to new circumstances by changing their tactics and the region in which they focus their terrorist attacks.

They have started expanding the scope of their attacks to some neighbouring countries in Central Asia. Security experts noted that the current stability in the Afghan arena will remain very fragile due to many complex internal and external challenges that lie beneath the surface.

They point out that the ambitious plans adopted by the authorities to build a stronger security apparatus are still in their early stages. In statements published by the “Eurasia Review” website, experts ruled out the success of these plans in the near future, stressing that the steps currently being taken will not bear fruit for several years, given the volatile security landscape.

Combined, all these factors indicate that the chaos and conflict that has plagued Afghanistan over the past five decades may return.

The experts called on the authorities in Kabul to deal with the current security challenges by adopting a different, well-thought-out, professional strategy that does not include resorting to collective punishment, repression, or torture.

At the same time, they emphasised the need for the international community to avoid contemplating scenarios that include direct military interventions. Instead, they should focus on collective efforts aimed at ensuring long-term security and stability in Afghanistan.

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