Today's Edition
NAJLA AL MUTASIM AL MIDFA*
On June 22, 2026, Keir Starmer stood outside 10 Downing Street and announced what many had seen coming for weeks: "The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election. I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question, and I accept that answer with good grace."
With that, Britain prepared to welcome its seventh prime minister in a decade. The question everyone is asking is the same one haunting Westminster since 2016: is Brexit to blame?
The chain reaction began the morning after the Brexit referendum. David Cameron resigned after the country voted to leave the European Union, triggering a sequence of departures driven by a combination of Brexit fallout, internal party rebellion and economic crises.
Theresa May followed, defeated by parliamentary deadlock over her withdrawal agreement. Boris Johnson delivered Brexit but resigned amid mounting pressure following a string of political controversies.
Liz Truss lasted 45 days after her economic programme triggered significant financial market instability. Rishi Sunak stabilised things briefly before losing to Starmer in 2024, whose own landslide victory proved shorter-lived than anyone expected.
A consistent pattern emerges: prime ministers come in with promises of renewal and stability, only to depart weakened by crises, scandals or public dissatisfaction. Since the referendum, not a single one has lasted more than three years.
That political instability has not occurred in an economic vacuum. By 2025, UK GDP per capita was estimated to be 6 to 8% lower than it would have been without Brexit, with business investment 12 to 18% below comparable economies and productivity persistently lagging.
Each prime minister inherited those frustrations and, unable to resolve them promptly, was eventually consumed by them. Some of this was caused by Brexit; Brexit created the conditions for instability, but certain leaders also made decisions that hastened their own downfall.
Whoever replaces Starmer will be inheriting the keys to Downing Street and a complex political inheritance.
Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester, has emerged as one of the leading contenders, bringing a fresh political personality and a proven record of defeating Reform UK in its own heartlands.
The structural challenges remain. Brexit's economic costs will not disappear with a change of leader. As one analyst put it, this represents a defining moment for mainstream British politics, with Reform UK continuing to grow in the polls and a general election due in 2029.
Britain has had seven prime ministers in a decade. The real question is whether it can change its political climate before the eighth arrives.
*The writer is a researcher at TRENDS Research & Advisory
