A. SREENIVASA REDDY (ABU DHABI)
The UAE is projected to become the world's largest generator of solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity on a per-capita basis by 2031, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Solar PV electricity generation in the UAE is forecast to exceed 4,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per person by 2031, up from around 1,500 kWh in 2025, placing the country ahead of Australia, Oman and other leading solar electricity producers.
The projections were published in the IEA's Renewables 2026: Analysis and Forecasts to 2031 report, which examines the expansion of renewable energy capacity and electricity generation worldwide over the next six years.
The report said the UAE was already among the world's leading countries in solar PV electricity generation per capita, alongside Australia, the Netherlands, Greece and Spain.
However, the global rankings are expected to change significantly over the forecast period, with the UAE overtaking Australia to secure the top position by 2031.
Australia is projected to generate approximately 3,600 kWh per person by 2031, followed by Oman with 3,300 kWh, Bulgaria with 2,750 kWh and Qatar with 2,700 kWh.
Greece is expected to generate around 2,500 kWh per person, followed by Austria with 2,250 kWh, Spain with 2,200 kWh, and China and Chile with approximately 2,050 kWh each.
The IEA said Oman and Bulgaria would emerge among the leading countries, while China would enter the top 10 as the minimum generation level required to feature in the rankings roughly doubles.
The outlook for the UAE has also been revised upwards from the agency's previous projections, reflecting its plans to expand the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park in Dubai from 5 gigawatts (GW) to more than 7 GW, alongside more ambitious clean energy targets.
In January 2026, the UAE increased its clean energy target to 35% by 2031, compared with its previous target of 32% by 2030, the report said.
The IEA identified the UAE as one of the major contributors to renewable energy capacity expansion in the Middle East and North Africa, with the region expected to accelerate deployment significantly over the 2026–2031 period.
Competitive auctions remain the UAE's main mechanism for procuring renewable electricity capacity. The report also noted that the UAE and Oman had signed their first bilateral contracts for round-the-clock renewable power.
The expansion of battery storage and the development of hybrid renewable projects are expected to support further deployment of solar electricity in the UAE.
Globally, the IEA expects average solar PV electricity generation per capita to more than double by 2031, although output in the leading countries will remain several times higher than the global average.
The report highlighted the growing contribution of solar PV to renewable electricity expansion, with the technology accounting for more than three-quarters of projected global renewable capacity growth through 2031.