RAJEEV CHERIAN (ABU DHABI)

“There is a chance of convective cloud formation accompanied by rain” is a phrase often heard in weather forecasts. But what exactly are convective clouds, and how do they produce rain?

Muhammed Sajjad, fresh from another rain-chasing expedition across the UAE, and widely known as the "UAE Weatherman", spoke to Aletihad about the factors that influence rainfall in the UAE, and his passion for following rain clouds across the country.

Convective clouds get their name from convection, the process by which warm air rises because it is lighter than the surrounding air. As this warm, moisture-laden air ascends, it cools, causing water vapour to condense into cloud droplets, the self-taught weather forecaster explained.

Some convective clouds continue to grow vertically, developing into towering rain-bearing systems. Depending on their stage of development, they can produce showers, thunderstorms, lightning and strong winds.

Sajjad noted that the UAE experiences two main types of rainfall.

“Convective rainfall is most common during the warmer months, particularly between April and November, mainly over inland areas. Winter rainfall, meanwhile, typically occurs between December and March and is associated with weather systems moving across the region.

‘Naseem Al Bahr’
According to Sajjad, two primary airflows contribute to convective cloud formation in the UAE. One originates from the Arabian Gulf, extending along the coast from Abu Dhabi to Ras Al Khaimah, while the other comes from the Sea of Oman along the eastern coast, including Fujairah, Kalba and Dibba.

During the afternoon, humid sea breezes, locally known as “Naseem Al Bahr”, move inland from both coasts. As these moisture-laden air masses converge over the interior of the country, warm air is forced to rise, creating favourable conditions for convective cloud development.

The Hajar Mountains also play a vital role in generating summer rainfall in inland areas through a process known as orographic lift, a process in which moist air is forced up mountain slopes, where it cools and forms clouds that can produce rain.

However, cloud formation alone does not guarantee rainfall. “Many factors must come together for rain to fall, including humidity levels, atmospheric pressure, temperature and the structure of the atmospheric layers where the clouds form,” Sajjad said.

Monsoon Influence
The UAE is also affected by the southwest monsoon during the summer months.

Moisture associated with the monsoon travels from the Indian Ocean region, passing over parts of Yemen and Oman before influencing eastern areas of the UAE, including Fujairah, Al Ain and surrounding regions.

In addition, large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño, La Niña, Rossby waves, the jet stream, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole can influence weather patterns and rainfall activity across the region.

Winter rainfall in the UAE is generally linked to low-pressure systems, upper-air troughs and weather disturbances moving across the region, bringing cloud cover and, at times, widespread rain.

From Civil Engineer to Weather Forecaster
Though a civil engineer by profession, Sajjad's fascination with weather began in 2015 after moving to the UAE.

“While it was extremely hot in the UAE, it was raining back home. That contrast sparked my curiosity and motivated me to learn more about weather and rainfall patterns,” he said.

What started as a personal interest in experiencing rain gradually evolved into a passion for rain-chasing and weather forecasting.

In 2016, he began sharing rainfall forecasts in the UAE in Malayalam under the name "Kerala Rain Forecaster" on social media. Over time, his audience expanded well beyond Malayalam speakers. Today, he has nearly 300,000 followers across social media platforms.

To make his forecasts, Sajjad follows official weather reports alongside advanced forecasting models from across the world. He added that accurate and up-to-date data are key in predicting rainfall.

For Sajjad, however, forecasting is only part of the attraction.

“I can't explain the feeling,” he said. “After spending hours searching for the right location and driving through intense heat, and then finally reaching the spot and standing in the rain, or even witnessing a hailstorm, is incredibly rewarding and refreshing,” he said.

Rain itself, he believes, holds a special appeal. “Rain has an almost indescribable attraction. It’s presence, arrival after a prolonged wait. That's one reason weather forecasts generate so much interest on social media today. In many ways, rain has become a new hit on social media.”