ABU DHABI (ALETIHAD)

The sixth annual TRENDS conference called for stronger regional security cooperation, strategic partnerships, stronger economic and cybersecurity foundations, and the protection of critical infrastructure. It also urged translating strategic dialogue into actionable policies and initiatives that help build a safer, more stable Middle East capable of addressing crises and geopolitical shifts.

The conference’s concluding recommendations, presented on Monday at the Ritz-Carlton, Abu Dhabi, under the theme Sustainable Security: The Future of the Middle East After the War, emphasised that achieving sustainable security requires a comprehensive approach beyond traditional military considerations. This approach should encompass economic, food, and digital security; strengthen societal resilience; enhance early-warning and crisis-management mechanisms; and expand cooperation between regional countries and their international partners.

The recommendations, delivered by Awad Al Breiki, Chief Researcher and Director General of TRENDS Global, followed discussions across four key areas: the future of deterrence and regional security; the information domain as an arena of conflict; evolving strategic partnerships and shifting balances of power; and the security of energy and trade flows amid geoeconomic competition.

Security and Stability
The recommendations stressed the importance of developing early warning mechanisms, intensifying intelligence coordination, and better integrating existing defense systems to improve responses to shared and cross-border threats. They also called for an integrated regional security approach that combines military capabilities, deterrence, diplomacy, confidence-building measures, and crisis-management mechanisms, while reinforcing regional countries’ responsibility for their own security and stability.

On international partnerships, the recommendations underscored the need to establish more sustainable strategic relationships with the United States, Europe, and other international partners, grounded in shared interests and long-term commitments. Such partnerships should extend beyond government cooperation to include universities, businesses, research centers, and civil society institutions, strengthening institutional collaboration and ensuring continuity amid political changes.

On the economic front, the recommendations called for placing economic resilience at the heart of national security by protecting critical infrastructure, including energy facilities, ports, maritime corridors, undersea cables, and supply chains.

They also emphasised accelerating regional integration in transport, electricity interconnection, logistics, and digital connectivity. The recommendations further highlighted the need to strengthen cybersecurity and information resilience by protecting critical digital infrastructure, countering information manipulation, raising public awareness, and ensuring that artificial intelligence is deployed within responsible governance frameworks and ethical standards that reinforce public trust.

They also stressed the need to move from strategic dialogue to structured, practical cooperation by deepening collaboration among Gulf countries, expanding partnerships with European, Asian, and African counterparts, and launching joint initiatives in scientific research, policy coordination, crisis preparedness, and the protection of shared economic interests.

Deterrence and Regional Security
The first session – Towards a New Vision for Regional Security: What Comes After Deterrence? – examined the war’s implications for deterrence, defence and regional security, as well as ways to develop a security framework capable of addressing strategic shifts and growing threats to critical, civilian and digital infrastructure. The session was moderated by Jamil Anderlini, Europe Editor of POLITICO, and featured Sir Michael Fallon, former UK Secretary of State for Defence; Lieutenant General Karen Gibson, former Director of Intelligence at US Central Command; Professor Choi Jong-kun, former First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea and Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Yonsei University; Barry Pavel, former Vice President and Director of the National Security Research Division at RAND; and Abdulaziz Al Shehhi, Chief Researcher and Deputy Director General for Research and Advisory at TRENDS.

Participants discussed the future of the conflict with Iran, the limits of military deterrence, and prospects for new regional security arrangements. They emphasised the importance of combining advanced defence capabilities with intelligence cooperation, digital resilience, and strategic partnerships.

Karen Gibson stressed that restoring stability requires securing maritime navigation and freedom of trade while reducing threats to critical infrastructure. Choi Jong-kun noted that the Strait of Hormuz is a major strategic pressure point shaping the course of confrontation and negotiations.

Abdulaziz Al Shehhi emphasised the need to distinguish between ending military operations and achieving lasting peace. He noted that sustainable stability requires the political will to resolve disputes, maintain diplomatic channels, and recognise the costs of continued conflict. Sir Michael Fallon warned that instability could persist amid challenges relating to trust and political will.

The session also examined the limits of traditional deterrence in addressing cyber threats, highlighting the importance of securing critical systems, building resilient digital infrastructure, and strengthening coordination between governments and the private sector.

Participants also called for multilayered defense systems and greater integration of data, sensor networks, and command-and-control centers. They concluded that regional security extends beyond military affairs to encompass economic, food, and cybersecurity, civilian protection, civil defence preparedness, societal cohesion, and countering disinformation and rumors.

The Information Domain
The second session – The Information Domain as an Arena of Conflict: Narratives, Influence and Information Warfare – explored the growing use of artificial intelligence to produce misleading content and the impact of competing narratives on public opinion and political responses during crises and conflicts. Moderated by Elyazia Al Hosani, Head of Media at TRENDS Group, the session featured Dr Saif Al Dhaheri, Director of the National Operations Centre and Official Spokesperson of the UAE National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority; Dr Nina Jankowicz, CEO of the American Sunlight Project; Dr Saad bin Tefla Al Ajmi, former Kuwaiti Minister of Information; Karen Allen, former BBC correspondent and founder of Karen Allen International; and Ambassador Alberto M. Fernandez, Vice President of the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) and a former US State Department official.

Dr Saif Al Dhaheri noted that the volume and speed of information circulation have made crisis management more complex. Images, videos and AI-generated content can confuse communities, affect markets and influence decision-making. He outlined the UAE’s national preparedness framework, which includes more than 40 national emergency plans, over six recovery plans, more than 200 operational plans and protocols, and over 40 specialised studies and research projects supporting proactive capabilities.

He highlighted the importance of deploying AI within clear governance frameworks, noting that the UAE’s early-warning system accommodates the country’s diverse population by issuing alerts in 11 languages and considering the needs of People of Determination. He stressed that public trust is fundamental to confronting crises and countering disinformation.

Nina Jankowicz warned against using large language models to spread propaganda and flood the internet with coordinated content that could influence AI-generated responses. She called for greater public awareness and access to reliable, fact-based information.

Saad bin Tefla Al Ajmi emphasised that credibility underpins trust in the media, cautioning against relying on anonymous sources, rumors, and fake accounts. Karen Allen highlighted the growing phenomenon of “fake journalists,” whose identities and professional profiles are created using AI to introduce misleading articles and narratives into media outlets and news organizations.

Partnerships and Shifting Power Balance
The third session – Power Through Partnerships: Alignments Reshaping the Balance of Power – examined shifts in regional and international power dynamics and the war’s implications for alliances, as countries increasingly pursue flexible relationships shaped by shared interests and national priorities.

The session was moderated by Bilal Saab, Director of the TRENDS Office in the United States, and featured Dr Judy Wen, a researcher at the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University and Director of International Communications at the China Forum; Professor Irina Zvyagelskaya, Head of the Middle East Studies Centre at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Dr Barin Kayaoglu, Head of the Department of American Studies at Ankara Social Sciences University; Dr Mihai Sebastian Chihaia, Policy Director of the Europe in the World Program at the European Policy Centre; and Dr J. M. Moore, Vice President of Pepperdine University and Managing Director of its Middle East programmes in the United States.

Judy Wen outlined China’s approach to strengthening economic, commercial and diplomatic cooperation while supporting mediation and peaceful solutions. Irina Zvyagelskaya highlighted the Middle East's strategic importance to Russia and opportunities for cooperation in energy, geological exploration, energy transportation, space and defence, as well as energy-policy coordination through OPEC+. Barin Kayaoglu discussed Turkiye’s flexible foreign policy in managing relations with both East and West, emphasising economic and commercial cooperation with the European Union, Russia, the United States and Gulf countries, while separating political disagreements from areas of potential collaboration.

Mihai Sebastian Chihaia called for moving EU-Gulf relations beyond political understandings toward practical projects, including establishing a European-Gulf maritime security center to exchange information and analysis on navigation, strengthening cybersecurity cooperation, protecting ports and undersea cables, and pursuing joint research and technology initiatives.

The discussion highlighted that effective partnerships depend less on the number of partners than on reliable cooperation, information sharing, diplomatic and logistical coordination, and the ability to manage differences while safeguarding shared interests.

Energy, Trade Security, and Supply Chain Resilience
The fourth session – Resilient Connectivity: Securing Energy and Trade Flows in an Era of Geoeconomic Competition – focused on how geopolitical tensions affect energy, trade, and investment flows, and how maritime disruptions affect supply chains and economic stability. Mouza Al Marzouqi, Chief Researcher and Director of Economic Studies at TRENDS Research & Advisory, moderated the session.

Participants included Professor Christian Bueger, Professor of International Relations at the University of Copenhagen and Fellow at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research; Dr Karen Young, Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy; Dr Neil Quilliam, Associate Fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House; Professor Federico Donelli, Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of Trieste and Research Fellow at the Wilson Center; and Bahraini geopolitical and Middle East affairs writer Abdullah Al Junaid.

Christian Bueger noted that recent disruptions have exposed international trade’s dependence on a limited number of critical maritime corridors, particularly the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. He stressed that protecting these routes is essential to maintaining the uninterrupted flow of goods and energy. Karen Young highlighted the need to diversify energy export routes and develop alternatives. She pointed to challenges affecting refined petroleum products, including diesel and aviation fuel, and emphasised the Gulf countries’ role as major sources of capital and investment in the global economy.

Neil Quilliam stressed that political and security risks have become fundamental considerations in investment decisions, with resilience and security now carrying importance comparable to efficiency and cost reduction. He also called for combining investment in conventional and clean energy with stronger regional cooperation on infrastructure protection, information-sharing, and crisis management. Federico Donelli highlighted the importance of diversifying logistics corridors and investing in ports and alternative routes, particularly across the Red Sea, Mediterranean and Horn of Africa. He emphasized the need to account for local priorities, strengthen governance and promote long-term cooperation.

Abdullah Al Junaid affirmed that supply chain security is integral to national security. He called for protecting ports and maritime corridors, strengthening Gulf integration in railways, electricity, customs, logistics and digital connectivity, and improving interoperability among regional infrastructure and systems. The session concluded that energy and trade security require more resilient, diversified systems that combine critical infrastructure protection, multiple supply routes, and stronger regional and international cooperation.

The Middle East After the War
On the sidelines of the conference, TRENDS Research & Advisory launched its book, 'The Middle East After the War', which offers a forward-looking assessment of the transformations unfolding across the region following the military confrontation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The book examines the confrontation’s strategic implications, including the weakening of traditional deterrence frameworks, structural shifts in the political and regional order, and the direct impact on global energy markets and maritime security.

It also analyses post-war security and political developments inside Iran, evolving concepts of warfare and weaponry, and the risk of growing threats from extremist groups and “grey zone” warfare during the coming transitional period. The launch reflects TRENDS Research & Advisory’s commitment to connecting research with strategic analysis and anticipating regional and international developments. Through knowledge-based insights, the publication aims to deepen understanding of security and economic challenges, inform policymaking, and support efforts to advance sustainable security and stability across the Middle East.