A. SREENIVASA REDDY (ABU DHABI)

The International Energy Agency estimated that the UAE produced an average of 4.1 million barrels of crude oil per day in June 2026, up from approximately 3.3 million barrels per day in May.

It described this as the UAE’s highest recorded monthly production, exceeding the previous peak of about 4 million barrels per day in 2020. The UAE-specific figures are not included in the publicly available version of the IEA’s July Oil Market Report and have been sourced from third-party reports citing the agency’s subscription-only edition.

Following its formal exit from OPEC on May 1, 2026, the UAE was no longer constrained by the alliance's output caps that had previously kept production well below its maximum capacity.

The sharp increase in UAE output came as production and exports across the Gulf recovered following an improvement in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Total Gulf oil exports, including volumes transported through routes bypassing the Strait, rose by 6.5 million barrels per day in June to 16.1 million barrels per day, according to the publicly available IEA report. Despite the increase, exports remained well below the pre-war average of 24 million barrels per day.

Crude oil and condensates accounted for 85% of the monthly increase in Gulf exports. The rise was supported by the release of oil held in floating storage and onshore inventories that had accumulated during the disruption to shipments.

Gulf oil production increased by a comparatively smaller 3.5 million barrels per day during June. Production nevertheless remained 11.4 million barrels per day below its pre-war level, the IEA said.

The difference between the increases in production and exports indicates that part of the additional crude shipped during the month came from existing inventories rather than newly produced oil.

The recovery in Gulf supplies contributed to a 4.1 million-barrel-per-day rise in global oil production in June, taking worldwide output to 98.8 million barrels per day. Global production, however, remained about 9.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels.

However, the recovery in crude shipments was not matched by an equivalent improvement in refined petroleum products. Gulf exports of refined products and liquefied petroleum gas remained at less than half their pre-war levels in June, while crude flows had recovered to nearly three-quarters of their February level.

The IEA said loadings from major Gulf export refineries had yet to resume, suggesting that refinery operations remained constrained. It added that intensified attacks on Russian refineries and export infrastructure had further tightened global fuel markets by affecting both exports and domestic supplies.