A. SREENIVASA REDDY (ABU DHABI)
Abu Dhabi’s economy is estimated to have expanded by 5.31% in 2025 and is projected to grow by a stronger 6.23% in 2026, underpinned by rising oil production and sustained non-oil activity, according to an assessment by S&P Global Ratings.
For the UAE, real GDP growth is estimated at 4.49% in 2025 and is expected to edge up to 4.74% in 2026, reflecting continued momentum in the non-oil economy alongside steady hydrocarbon output, S&P Global Ratings said.
Among the individual emirates rated by S&P Global Ratings, Ras Al Khaimah is projected to record GDP growth of 3.30% in 2025 and 3.60% in 2026, while Sharjah’s economy is estimated to grow by 3.80% in 2025 before moderating slightly to 3.50% in 2026, according to the agency’s economic outlook tables.
In terms of income levels, Abu Dhabi continues to stand out with one of the highest GDP per capita figures in the region. GDP per capita in the emirate is estimated at $74,400 in 2025 and is expected to remain broadly stable in 2026, supported by strong fiscal buffers and a large stock of government financial assets, S&P Global Ratings noted.
At the federal level, UAE GDP per capita is estimated at $48,600 in 2025, rising modestly to $48,900 in 2026, reflecting steady population growth alongside resilient economic expansion, the ratings agency said.
Ras Al Khaimah’s GDP per capita is estimated at $31,600 in 2025 and is expected to increase gradually to $31,800 in 2026, supported by ongoing development activity and steady fiscal performance, according to S&P Global Ratings . Sharjah’s GDP per capita is estimated at $24,600 in 2025, rising to around $25,400 in 2026, reflecting continued economic growth despite higher expenditure and interest costs, the report showed.
On the ratings front, Abu Dhabi is rated AA with a stable outlook, reflecting what S&P Global Ratings described as strong fiscal and external positions, supported by prudent policymaking and substantial net government assets. The agency said the stable outlook assumes these strengths will be maintained over the next two years despite geopolitical risks and oil price volatility.
“Measures to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in the emirate, such as establishing deeper domestic capital markets, could be positive for the ratings,” the S&P report said.
The UAE also carries an AA rating with a stable outlook, with S&P Global Ratings citing robust growth prospects, diversification of the economy and strong government balance sheets as key credit strengths. The agency said it expects non-oil sectors to account for around three-quarters of real GDP growth in 2026, reinforcing the country’s resilience to external shocks.
Ras Al Khaimah is rated A with a stable outlook, reflecting expectations that the emirate’s economic growth and fiscal position will remain strong over the outlook horizon. S&P Global Ratings noted that continued fiscal discipline and the maintenance of a net asset position support the rating.
Sharjah is rated BBB- with a negative outlook, reflecting elevated expenditure and interest costs, although S&P Global Ratings said the emirate continues to record robust growth and revenue generation.
S&P Global Ratings said its 2026 outlook for Middle East sovereigns, including those in the UAE, remains stable, as strong government balance sheets and policy flexibility are expected to help economies navigate ongoing geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility.