ISIDORA CIRIC (DUBAI)

“We are losing the ability of stability of the planet because we are transgressing the nature boundaries, biodiversity, freshwater land system, and the configuration of biome,” as revealed by Professor Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, at the COP28 Leaders’ Event titled “Protecting Nature for Climate, Lives, and Livelihoods”.

Professor Rockström's analysis at COP28 paints a stark picture of the world’s current ecological state, emphasising the urgency to act within the confines of planetary boundaries.

Transgressing Planetary Boundaries

Professor Rockström began with a chilling revelation: "We have today scientific evidence of having transgressed six of the nine planetary boundaries."

He underscored the severity of the ecological crisis, highlighting that human actions have pushed the Earth's systems beyond their safe operating limits.

Rockström emphasised that this transgression is not just deepening the climate crisis but also "losing resilience in the whole capacity of the planet to buffer the stress caused by the climate crisis".

The Tipping Elements and Climate Crisis

Rockström presented a map showing 16 climate tipping elements, including the coral reef systems, Congo and Amazon rainforests, ice sheets, and ocean circulation systems.

Alarmingly, he noted, that "five of these are at risk and are likely to cross their tipping points already at 1.5 degrees Celsius".

He pointed out that this includes the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, which could lead to a 10-metre sea-level rise, and the destruction of coral reef systems, affecting the livelihoods of over 300 million people.

Nature's Subsidy and the Overshoot Risk

The professor highlighted nature's critical role in mitigating climate change, stating that, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 56 per cent of carbon dioxide is absorbed by functioning nature on the planet.

He described this as the "largest subsidy to the world economy".

Rockström warned of the imminent risk of overshooting the 1.5-degree Celsius target, observing that the pathway to staying within this limit is becoming increasingly unlikely.

“By the end of the century, if we do everything right, the only way to come back is to decarbonise the global energy system, but also invest in nature,” the professor stressed.

The Five Carbon Budgets

Towards the conclusion of his speech, Rockström presented an operational agenda for COP28, focusing on five carbon budgets.

These include maintaining carbon dioxide emissions within 15 billion tonnes, transforming the global food system from the single largest emitter of 4 billion tonnes to become a carbon sink of 5 billion tonnes, managing irrecoverable carbon in biomes, sustaining ocean health, and scaling carbon dioxide removal technologies.

He asserted: "This is the agenda, five carbon budgets that need to be acted upon simultaneously for a safe landing within the Paris range over the next 30 years."

Professor Rockström's speech was a powerful reminder of the challenges and responsibilities we face in preserving our planet. His call to action, emphasising the integration of nature into our climate strategy, is not just a scientific assessment but a moral imperative.

He reinforced the need to invest in and protect the Amazon rainforest, a crucial part of maintaining Earth's resilience.

His message was clear: nature must be a top priority in our journey towards a sustainable future.