ABU DHABI (ALETIHAD)
A research study released by TRENDS Research and Advisory revealed changes in the balance of influence in the Sahel and West Africa between Russia and the "Western camp". It confirmed a shift in influence in the Sahel region in favour of Russia. This shift follows a series of changes among ruling elites, primarily due to military coups in the Sahel region, as well as withdrawals of French and US military forces from Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso and Niger.
The study, titled "Changes in the Balance of Influence in the Sahel and West Africa between Russia and the Western Camp," was prepared by Mohamed Gomaa, a strategic studies expert, and Nouf Yaqoub Al-Saadi, a researcher at TRENDS’ Research Department. It notes that while French and US forces are leaving the Sahel, Russian forces from the African Corps are replacing them to undertake security, anti-terrorism, and counter-insurgency missions.
The study indicates that Russia is working to establish a bloc loyal to it to achieve its military, economic and political objectives in Africa in collaboration with the Sahel Alliance consisting of the military councils of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Russia also aims to enhance economic engagement with Africa across various sectors to mitigate the impact of tensions with Western countries by leveraging new revenue sources and export markets.
The study confirmed that Russia seeks to boost its agricultural exports to Africa to increase revenue. It has been trying to gain a larger share of the African wheat market since late 2010, using the war in Ukraine to support these efforts by targeting Ukrainian grain production and obstructing its exports.
The study concluded that the growing Russian military presence in Africa might enable the Kremlin to threaten the West and undermine its policies, especially with a Russian naval base in Libya.
Additionally, the Russian presence at the US drone base in northern Niger could create an opportunity for Russia to threaten NATO operations in the Mediterranean. Moreover, Russia might use its increased military footprint along major migrant routes across the Sahara to bolster migrant flows that threaten Europe's stability.
On the other hand, despite Russia's ongoing efforts to build more robust trade and economic relations with Africa and the Sahel region, the Kremlin's economic ties in Africa are modest compared to those of the Soviet Union. Russian investments account for less than 1% of Africa's total foreign direct investment. Therefore, Moscow's main competitive advantage against the West so far is its ability to offer relatively cheap security and military services, including arms transfers, training, and counterinsurgency advisory services, according to the study.
The study also indicated that Russia lacks the capability to significantly increase development or military investment in Africa due to the economic constraints imposed on it. Nevertheless, the study suggested that Russia will likely strengthen its influence in the African Sahel further in the foreseeable and medium term.