SHAABAN BILAL (BAMAKO, CAIRO)
Experts and political analysts have expressed concerns about the potential consequences of the United Nations peacekeeping mission’s withdrawal from Mali, fearing it could create a security vacuum in the West African country, already facing a surge in terrorism.
The UN mission concluded its operations in Mali after a decade, in response to a 2023 request from Malian authorities to end the mission by December 31 of that year. The force comprised around 12,000 personnel.
Dr. Nermin Tawfik, a specialist in African affairs, discussed the implications of the UN forces’ departure from Mali, especially considering recent shifts in the West African political landscape, including changes in governance and military coups.
Speaking to Aletihad, Tawfik noted that the UN mission, intended for peacekeeping, security, and counter-terrorism, faced new challenges after these military coups. The current climate is marked by a growing resistance to international interventions, including those by peacekeeping forces and the United Nations, he said.
Tawfik highlighted that the UN’s exit puts pressure on Mali’s ruling regime by creating a military void. The country grapples with terrorist groups targeting civilians, worsening the situation.
Additionally, French and Western influence in West Africa, including Mali and Niger, is waning, giving way to other forces amid popular opposition to their interventions.
Dr. Sally Farid, head of the Politics and Economics Department at the Higher Institute of African Studies at Cairo University, pointed out the recent tensions between Mali’s military council and European Union countries, particularly France and Germany. The UN perceives these tensions as unfavourable for continuing its mission, she said.
Farid, in her conversation with Aletihad, reported a significant increase in terrorist attacks in northern Mali over the past three months, resulting in over 40 deaths, around 45,000 displacements, and numerous school closures.
She warned that the peacekeeping forces’ withdrawal could exacerbate the security vacuum and humanitarian crises, especially following the French forces’ withdrawal and the cessation of European training exercises at the end of 2022. This comes amid strained relations between Mali’s ruling authority and Western nations.
Mohamed Azaldin, a specialist in African affairs, concurred about the impact of the peacekeeping forces’ withdrawal, predicting an escalation in disturbances due to the security gap, especially in countries lacking a solid agreement between armed movements.
Azaldin told Aletihad that the confluence of extremist movements, power struggles, the French withdrawal, and escalating situations in Niger and Burkina Faso is altering conflict dynamics.
This change is occurring in the context of the peacekeeping forces’ departure, which had the military capability to confront armed movements and limit their expansion, he added.