DINA MAHMOUD (LONDON)
As primary elections commence across various US states to select candidates for the upcoming presidential race, a recent opinion poll has unveiled a surge in voters with independent leanings, reaching a peak that has not been observed in nearly a decade. This trend may significantly influence the results of the elections on November 5, which will determine the next occupant of the White House for the upcoming four years.
The poll, conducted by the esteemed American public opinion research firm Gallup, revealed that an average of 43% of eligible American voters identify as independents, not affiliating with the major Republican or Democratic parties.
This level mirrors the level previously observed in 2014. Additionally, the poll indicated that only 27% of respondents identified as either Democrats or Republicans.
According to Gallup, this uptick in independent voters has predominantly occurred at the expense of the Democratic base rather than the Republicans, who appear to maintain more steadfast support.
Gallup officials have noted that it was “expected” for a greater number of Democrats to shift towards independent leanings than Republicans, especially as Democrats have constituted the largest political group in the United States in recent years.
Prominent American news outlet Axios reports that these survey findings affirm the increasing significance of politically independent voters as a “dominant voting bloc” in the US, less than a year before the presidential elections.
This aligns with other studies from last year, which indicated that independents had already reached 49% in the spring of 2023.
Experts suggest that independents could play a crucial role in any close race in the November elections, particularly if the candidates are current Democratic President Joe Biden and his potential Republican challenger, Donald Trump.
However, it is commonly observed that the proportion of independent voters tends to decline during presidential election years, meaning the current majority of independents over the Democratic and Republican voter groups, a trend since 1991, may diminish in the upcoming months.
Conversely, the Gallup poll’s findings, highlighting a rise in voters with independent leanings, might be a positive signal for the American political group “No Labels”, which is dedicated to identifying what its leaders term a “centrist candidate”.
This candidate would ideally compete with Republican and Democratic contenders in the forthcoming elections.