A. SREENIVASA REDDY (ABU DHABI)
The latest geopolitical shocks are forcing a fundamental reset in how the world thinks about energy security, with resilience and reliability overtaking cost efficiency as the central organising principle of global energy systems, according to a new industry paper released by ADIPEC organisation.
Disruptions to supply chains — whether from conflict or natural events — are no longer isolated incidents but systemic shocks that reverberate across the global energy architecture, driving price volatility, supply scarcity and strategic uncertainty.
The report argues that the era of a globally optimised, cost-driven energy system is giving way to a more complex, multilayered model built on redundancy, optionality and control over infrastructure.
“Global energy policy has entered an era of energy realism, in which energy security and systemic resilience have overtaken cost optimisation as the dominant decision framework,” the report noted.
At the core of this transformation is a redefinition of infrastructure itself. No longer viewed as a neutral network of pipelines, grids and shipping routes, energy infrastructure is increasingly seen as a strategic asset — one that underpins national security and geopolitical influence.
Heavy dependence on a handful of critical maritime chokepoints has sparked a debate on the need for reset in the way the supply chains work. Around 76% of global oil supply is transported via sea routes, with tankers accounting for nearly 20% of global shipping tonnage, underscoring the fragility of the system.
Key arteries such as the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Suez Canal have emerged as strategic pressure points where even localised disruptions can trigger global consequences. The paper notes that about 20 million barrels per day (mbpd) pass through Hormuz alone, while only 3.5–5.5 mbpd can be rerouted through alternative pipelines — exposing a critical structural gap in global energy logistics.
While bypass systems such as Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline, Egypt’s SUMED pipeline, and the UAE’s Fujairah export infrastructure offer some relief, they function only as partial “pressure release valves” rather than full substitutes for these chokepoints.
Industry leaders say the answer lies not in eliminating risk — which is impossible — but in building layered resilience into the system.
“We will never stop needing oil and gas for baseload power,” said Tarek El-Molla, former Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources of Egypt, stressing the continued centrality of hydrocarbons even as the energy transition accelerates.
El-Molla argued that true energy security goes beyond emergency reserves, requiring a balanced mix of fuels and robust infrastructure capable of withstanding shocks. “Security is about more than just emergency reserves; it is about a balanced energy mix and infrastructure capabilities,” he said, advocating a “realism-first” approach that integrates renewables while maintaining a strong hydrocarbon backbone.
The scale of investment reflects this shift. Global energy spending exceeded $3 trillion in 2025, increasingly directed towards grid reinforcement, domestic production capacity, redundancy and supply security rather than pure efficiency gains.
At the corporate level, ADNOC offers a practical example of how this new energy realism is being implemented.
Its infrastructure resilience is anchored by a Fujairah-linked export system that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, reducing exposure to one of the world’s most critical chokepoints.
This is complemented by the company’s In-Country Value programme, which is expanding domestic manufacturing capacity and reducing reliance on external supply chains. At the same time, ADNOC is investing in future-facing technologies, including hydrogen and carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS).
The report says that resilience in this new era will not come from avoiding disruptions altogether, but from designing systems capable of absorbing shocks through redundancy, flexibility and integrated infrastructure.