LONDON/SYDNEY (REUTERS)

Brent crude oil rose 2% on Monday and was on track for a record monthly rise while global stocks ​were in limbo as investors dug in for a Middle East conflict they fear will bring a surge in inflation and the risk of recession to much of the globe.

Shares across Asia fell, with Japan's Nikkei index closing down 2.8%. European stocks clawed back some ground and Wall Street futures pointed to gains, ⁠although they were slim given a recent sell-off.

The clampdown on the Hormuz Strait has sent global prices for oil, gas, fertiliser, plastic and aluminium surging, along with fuel for planes ​and shipping. Prices for food, pharmaceuticals, and petrochemical products are all set to rise.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1.8%.

European stocks were last up 0.6%, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures pointed to similar-sized gains.

"The longer the Strait remains closed, the sharper the drawdown in buffer supplies that could spark dramatic increases in the price of crude oil, natural gas and other commodities," said Bruce Kasman, global ‌head of economics at JPMorgan.

Brent crude rose 2% to $114.85 a barrel, on course for a 59% gain in March. US crude climbed 1.5% to $101.16.

The dollar index was meanwhile trading near a 10-month high at 100.25, broadly flat on the day. Yet more warnings of possible intervention from the Japanese authorities did see the dollar ease 0.5% to 159.5 yen. It crossed the 160 barrier last week for the first time since July 2024, when Japan last acted to buy yen.

The euro dipped 0.1% to $1.1493, not far from ​a March trough of $1.1409.

In commodity markets, gold gained 1.1% to $4,542 an ounce , having recently drawn scant support as a safe haven ​or as a hedge against inflation risks.