A. SREENIVASA REDDY (ABU DHABI)
It would take at least $25 billion to repair and restore the energy infrastructure damaged in the current geopolitical tensions, according to an estimate by Rystad Energy, a leading global independent research and energy intelligence company.
The current situation has triggered severe global supply disruptions in oil and gas, with reported damage and shutdowns affecting liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains, refineries, fuel terminals and critical gas-to-liquids facilities across the region.
According to Rystad Energy, the repair bill is based on an initial assessment of impacted facilities and is expected to rise further as the full extent of damage becomes clear.
The company said spending will be driven primarily by engineering and construction, followed by equipment and materials.
The report highlighted that restoration timelines will vary significantly depending on the severity of damage, with some facilities expected to resume operations within months, while others could take years to recover.
“The Gulf region’s recovery will be defined less by financial capital and more by structural constraints. While some assets may be restored within months, others could remain offline for years,” said Audun Martinsen, Head of Supply Chain Research at Rystad Energy.
He added that prolonged outages could have lasting implications for production capacity. “Every day of damaged or shut-in infrastructure pushes pre-war production capacity further out of reach,” Martinsen said.
One of the most severe cases identified in the report is Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, where damage to LNG trains has led to a significant capacity reduction.
Full recovery of the facility could take up to five years due to long lead times for specialised equipment such as large-frame gas turbines, which are supplied by only a limited number of manufacturers globally and currently face production backlogs.
In Bahrain, the BAPCO Sitra Refinery suffered damage to key processing units shortly after completing a major modernisation programme, delaying expected revenues and requiring contractors to be remobilised under higher costs and uncertain war-risk insurance conditions, according to Rystad Energy.
Across the region, including Kuwait, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, disruptions range from moderate to minor, with recovery speeds largely dependent on the strength of domestic engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) ecosystems.
Rystad Energy noted that operators are likely to prioritise restoring existing production rather than pursuing new developments, creating strong demand for EPC contractors and equipment suppliers. Initial efforts are expected to focus on inspection, engineering and site preparation, followed by equipment replacement and construction as supply constraints ease.
“Urgent repairs will have to take precedence in place of planned expansion,” Martinsen said, underscoring the shift in capital allocation across the sector.
The report added that the pace of recovery will ultimately depend on execution capacity, availability of critical equipment, and the ability of operators to mobilise resources amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.